Illustration: Liu Rui
Editor's Note:
Speculations about war against Iran are growing, particularly in the wake of the announcement made by US President Barack Obama Monday that the US will freeze all assets owned by the Iranian government and its financial institutions under its jurisdiction. But Obama also stated the day before that the US still sought negotiation. What is driving the tensions? Can peace be preserved? Global Times reporters Yu Jincui and Chen Chenchen talked to two experts over the possibility of war against Iran.
Israel could drag US into war
Clifford Kiracofe, professor of political science at Washington and Lee University and a former Senior Professional Staff Member of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee
War is possible but, of course, not desirable. The most likely war scenario would be an Israeli attack on Iran. This would then draw the US in, resulting in a wider war in the region and possibly beyond.
A variation of this scenario could be that Israel would arrange an attack against US assets in the area but attempt to blame the attack on Iran, which would thus spark military confrontation between the US and Iran.
In the US, there is opposition to such a war in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in our diplomatic service, and in our intelligence community.
But the problem is that many politicians want a war and there would be almost complete support in Congress for war against Iran.
Thus, the pro-war faction in Israel might feel emboldened, because they know with certainty they can count on blind support from most US politicians.
One can speculate that the timing of an Israeli attack would be sometime prior to the forthcoming US presidential election in November.
In such circumstances, most Washington politicians would fall all over themselves to support Israel, with a view to election contributions and support for their campaigns from Jewish voters.
Look how politicians voted for former President George W. Bush's war against Iraq when more than three quarters of the Congress voted to support war. Many believe there would be a larger percentage today for war against Iran.
Opponents of war against Iran in the US realize that the war would escalate regionally, and perhaps globally, in ways that cannot be predicted. Also, a war will not necessarily change the regime itself in Tehran. The opposite might happen as the people rally patriotically behind the regime to protect their country, as, for instance, happened in the Iran-Iraq War.
Arab world pushing for strike
Yin Gang, a senior researcher at the Institute of Western Asian and African Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
The Iranian nuclear issue is a global threat. Therefore, a war against Iran is in essence different from previous wars.
I don't think we can make predictions based on previous cases. The eruption of each war has its own reasons and consequences.
No one can rule out the possibility of war against Iran at the moment. Iran's nuclear threat primarily targets the Arab world, who will be the main drivers behind war against Iran. Compared to Arab countries, Israel's toughness is more like a pose.
Neither party involved wants to be solely responsible for attacks against Iran. The US is practicing a responsibility-sharing strategy in the Middle East.
As a result, the settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue is set to witness joint actions, both active or passive, by the Arabs, the Europeans, the Americans and the Israelis.
If a war against Iran breaks out, none of them would fight a lone battle with the Iranians.
Israel may take the lead to launch an attack against Iran, which would then draw all the other parties in. There is a slim chance that Iran will really risk all dangers in its desperation to make nuclear weapons. If so, there is still the possibility that all parties involved would join hands to take actions against Iran.
If the US starts a war against Iran, this would surely be a result of its consultation with Israel and other parties. If a war does not erupt before the end of US President Barack Obama's first term and he loses reelection, then I would say that the likely time for a war would be January 2013, when the new president has been elected but hasn't officially been sworn in.
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