Editor's Note:
The US-Myanmar relationship has been closer under the Obama administration, particularly after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit last year to Myanmar and the country's recent political reforms. How will the US-Myanmar relationship develop? How China should respond to this change? Global Times (GT) reporter Xu Ming talked to Du Jifeng (Du), a research fellow at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and David Steinberg (Steinberg), a specialist on Myanmar and professor of Asian Studies at Georgetown University, on these issues.
GT: The US is loosening sanctions on Myanmar and encouraging political reforms. How do you see the prospects of the relationship?
Steinberg: The US-Myanmar relationship has begun to change under the Obama administration. It is likely to be slow and uneven in spite of the rapidity of the changes so far. The Obama administration is attempting to have a normal relationship with Myanmar.
Under former US Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, the issues were solely human rights and democracy in a simplistic way. Now the US is attempting to be more balanced.
Du: The two countries' relationship will gradually get warmer, as long as there is no big change in Myanmar's internal politics and the Myanmese government continues its reform. The US will respond to Myanmar's political reforms with encouragement or payback.
The Myanmese government is proceeding as the US expects, such as in reconciling with the opposition and in its relations with North Korea. It is also making progress in addressing the conflicts with its minorities and peaceful negotiation with them is likely, even if the government's conflict with the Kachin people persists.
GT: How do you think the triangular relationship will develop in the future?
Du: At particular stages, Myanmar might compromise with the US, but it will not be at the expense of its relations with China. Eventually, Myanmar will seek a balance between China and the US and hopes they both realize the importance of Myanmar for them. The triangular relationship is rather delicate and needs tactful diplomatic skills.
Steinberg: Remember that in Myanmar, there is still a very strong left wing. Even if the communist party has collapsed, there is still considerable feeling about Western imperialists.
I think Myanmar will want to return to a more balanced and neutral position, which was so useful to it in the Cold War period. Myanmar has an important and good reputation for neutrality.
At present, the Myanmese government is interested in having a better relationship with the US, so there is a great deal of enthusiasm. But over time, it will be balanced. The Myanmese people do not want any foreign government to dominate in their country.
GT: In a recent interview, Myanmar's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who will run for a seat in the country's new Parliament in a by-election in April, said that Myanmar wants to be a friend to both China and the US. What does her remark signal?
Steinberg: Every Myanmese government wants to be friendly with China, and even in 1967, the relations between the two countries were not cut off and the embassies were not closed. Chinese influence in Myanmar is important, and Suu Kyi recognizes that this will not go away, but that Myanmar also needs the US and the EU. She is a politician, and this is realism.
Du:Suu Kyi's remark is reasonable. Both the government and the opposition party realize the need to strike a balance among big powers diplomatically, and leaning overly to one big power is not in the national interest of Myanmar. Suu Kyi might seem a little pro-US while she is out of power in order to get US support, but once she becomes part of the Myanmese government, there will be some changes in her language.