BIZ >> Expert assessment

Moody’s downgrade of China’s rating not fair

International rating agency Moody’s downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3 on Wednesday, based on its forecast that China’s financial strength would be affected by rising debt and a slowdown in growth that would lead to more dependence on policy stimulus. It was Moody’s first downgrade for the country since 1989.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/25 23:18:39

B&R can help strengthen China-Turkey ties

At the opening ceremony of the Belt and Road Forum, it was noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sat on both sides of Chinese President Xi Jinping. President Erdogan, who delivered a speech at the opening ceremony, was prominent at the event, indicating that the Sino-Turkish relationship has become warmer. It shows that China attaches great importance to Turkey’s contribution to the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/24 23:38:39

Eurozone outlook less grim than many realize

I have been out of the world of international finance and economic forecasting for more than four years, but much of what I learned during my 30 years working full-time in the field still influences how I view the world. One lesson was to measure an entity’s economic and financial performance by how it compares both to the entity’s underlying potential and the market’s valuation of its performance. Applying this approach to the major economies gives rise to some surprising observations – and possibilities.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/23 21:53:40

Singapore poised to overtake Switzerland

If this city island nation in Southeast Asia wants to survive, extraordinary efforts should be made to make the country extraordinary, Singapore’s founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, wrote in his memoirs. This can also apply to Singapore’s current efforts to maintain its competitiveness in global financial markets.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/22 23:23:39

Trade support needed to boost aid for Africa

Aid to sub-Saharan Africa decreased in 2015, as a result of sluggish global growth and weak commodity prices. And the 2018 budget blueprint recently announced by the US cut the foreign aid budget by one third, while the impact of Brexit on Africa is a further reason for uncertainty.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/21 22:08:39

China should ban Bitcoin trading to avoid risks

The rapid rise of Bitcoin in domestic and foreign markets is creating an unregulated, uncontrolled virtual currency instrument that is increasingly being used for money laundering and capital flight. The existing credit situation and the central bank’s ability to control financial risks are greatly affected by Bitcoin. Given this uncertainty, we suggest that China’s central bank should completely block Bitcoin transactions in the Chinese market temporarily. The ban could be lifted after problems with the virtual currency have been thoroughly analyzed.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/18 20:38:39

B&R can help push yuan internationalization

It has become common knowledge that the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative will help push forward the internationalization of the Chinese yuan. China has signed currency swap agreements with more than 30 countries and regions, among which 22 are along the B&R route. Of the 23 countries with whom China has launched direct trading of the yuan, eight are along the route. Also, the financial institutions of many B&R countries have participated in the yuan’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System launched by China.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/17 23:23:39

Change of leadership in Serbia will not affect its B&R cooperation with China

From Azerbaijan to Serbia, many countries and regions are included in the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative. Most countries along the route are small-sized nations, with limited populations and economic scale.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/16 22:33:39

The B&R can usher in new global growth cycle

From the perspective of the new structural economics, we can explain why China’s “One Belt and One Road” (B&R) initiative can be widely welcomed, while other similar initiatives from the US have proved less popular. Primarily, along the B&R, there are more than 60 countries, with generally low per capita GDP.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/15 22:48:40

China needs to develop detailed Africa strategy

Not long ago, I took a 10-day trip to Africa with the aim of finding out about the real situation of China-Africa cooperation against the background of the “One Belt and One Road” (B&R) initiative. The three countries I visited were Egypt, Ethiopia and Tanzania. All three are major players in the China-Africa industrial capacity cooperation, but only Egypt is on the B&R route. After visiting Chinese embassies, Chinese-funded enterprises, investment projects and parks, local government agencies and think tanks in the three countries, I came up with several thoughts with regard to China-Africa cooperation.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/14 23:08:40

Education will be main benefit from Belt and Road

In the past year, the “One Belt and One Road” (B&R) initiative has received intense global attention. While much of the discussion on how to make the B&R initiative successful has been based on economic, technological and geopolitical perspectives, its ultimate success must be based on a common foundation, which is the interaction among people in different countries and regions.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/11 22:28:39

China should take competition from India seriously

China and India are two neighboring countries with the largest populations in the world, an unusual geographical phenomenon. With a population of 1.38 billion, China’s GDP grew 6.7 percent to more than $10 trillion in 2016, while the Indian Central Statistics Office estimated India’s GDP growth for the full fiscal 2016-17 at 7.1 per cent.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/10 22:28:39

China needs to continue with its ‘heavy lifting’

China has shown the world it is capable of “heavy lifting” in a wide sense, and there are several examples of this.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/9 21:28:39

CPEC program achieves unexpected progress

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will play a leading role in the Belt and Road initiative. Recently, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China launched an intensive research program to look at the progress and problems of the CPEC construction in Pakistan. After assessment, we found that the construction has been unexpectedly fast. Four key areas of cooperation – energy, transport infrastructure, industrial cooperation and Gwadar Port – have made significant progress. Among them, electricity and infrastructure have seen smooth development.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/8 20:18:39

China can learn from the UK on aid for Africa

In December 2016, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) published a five-year report assessing the performance of the UK’s multilateral aid institutions. As the only G7 and G20 country that provides up to 0.7 percent of gross national income as foreign aid, the UK has always attached great importance to cooperation with multilateral institutions, with multilateral aid accounting for about 40 percent of the country’s total foreign aid.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/7 19:18:39

China could work on RCEP deal without India

Although Japan is trying to save the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after US President Donald Trump abandoned the free trade agreement (FTA), there seems to be little chance that the deal will survive. This means the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an FTA that includes China, now has more strategic global significance.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/4 21:43:39

Rapid drop in forex reserves a worrying sign

China’s foreign exchange (forex)reserves fell from $3.99 trillion in June 2014 to $3 trillion in January 2017, a drop of 25 percent. The reason behind the rapid decrease in reserves is that the central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market to prevent excessive depreciation of the Chinese yuan.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/3 19:43:39

Chinese investors turn back to home market

China’s overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have registered a continuous increase in recent years. In 2016, China’s outbound direct investment in the non-financial sector surged 44 percent to hit a record high of $170 billion. It is worth mentioning that China’s outbound investment in real estate soared 53 percent in 2016, reaching $33 billion.
Source: Global Times | 2017/5/2 19:08:39