Editor's Note:

China and Panama have developed close ties since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2017. Laurentino Cortizo, leader of Panama's Democratic Revolutionary Party, has been officially declared the winner of the presidential election on May 5. Will the president-elect bring change? What does the future hold for China-Panama relations? Guillermo Villalobos Solé (Solé), a political scientist and international consultant from Costa Rica living in Panama, shared his insights during an interview with the Global Times (GT) reporter Yan Yunming. 

GT: China and Panama established diplomatic relations in June 2017. How would you evaluate the relationship in the last two years? Will president-elect Laurentino Cortizo bring change?

Solé: The presence of China in Panama is not a circumstantial issue nor political and economic opportunism.

The evolution of the Chinese presence in Panama has been a process of growth and consolidation that can trace back more than 150 years.

The extension of the Silk Road, or the Belt and the Road Initiative (BRI) as it is known today, is part of the globalized world and we must understand this. An example is the cooperation between the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and China under the BRI framework that focuses on the interconnectivity of infrastructures. During the past two years there is no doubt the presence of China in Panama has been more visible and important. This can be explained by the strategic importance of Panama in the world's maritime trade through the Panama Canal, by its geographical position allowing it to link the north with the south and Pacific with Atlantic.

However, the speed that China-Panama relations have developed has aroused the concern of some, particularly the US, who is Panama's main economic partner and who also is in a trade war with China. In relation to the role of the new president of Panama as of July 1, it would be necessary to wait until his cabinet is appointed, especially in the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Commerce, to form a more precise opinion. The government program presented in the campaign was not very clear. I believe that the speed of the development of China-Panama relations will slow down with the arrival of the next government, at least for some time. And the new government will be more cautious, because I believe the US will exert more pressure toward the government.

GT: Cortizo warned that if the US neglected South America, it was inviting China to fill the gap. And he suggested he might want to develop ties with China more slowly than President Varela did. Do you think Cortizo's attitude toward China and the US is motivated by electoral interests or represents his future diplomatic policies?

Solé: It is still too early to say how Panama's foreign policy will be toward China and the US, especially if we take into account they are the two leading economic powers in the world and they are the two most important users of the Panama Canal. I do not believe what Cortizo expressed was motivated by an electoral issue. If something characterizes the president-elect, it is his firmness and conviction. He is a very consistent man.

What I could say is that relations will be more moderate. Remember, Panama is a country with a commitment to neutrality that has been characterized as a good mediator.

GT: China and Panama are important trade partners. China is the second-largest user of the Panama Canal, and Panama has responded positively to China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). How do you see future Panama-China trade ties and economic cooperation, especially under the BRI framework?

Solé: In a globalized world where China has become a giant, it would be impossible for trade relations with Panama to suffer great changes.

Panama is a country with a very open economy and with an emphasis on the service sectors including commercial, financial, port, and logistics, so it is unlikely relations with China will change as China is a vital partner in regional development.

GT: China-US trade disputes have recently escalated. Does this have any effect on Panama and other South American countries?

Solé: There is no doubt the effects of trade disputes between China and the US are important for the Latin American region. In a globalized world, any alteration of the economy, especially by those that dominate the world, directly affect all countries, especially if they are like Panama, which relies mostly on the service sector.

With Panama, its effect has been noted in the reduction of cargo that passes through the Canal and by commercial free zone activity. Both are fundamental pillars of the Panamanian economy.

The trade war between two powers could be an element to keep in mind the definition of Panama's foreign policy toward China, showing a more cautious and moderate position than that followed by the current government.