Leaked documents showing Brazilian anti-corruption investigators conspired to keep leftist icon Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva out of the 2018 presidential race ignited a firestorm on social media Monday, but analysts downplayed the potential fallout.
The Intercept website published a series of explosive articles Sunday based on material provided by an anonymous source that it said show "serious wrongdoing, unethical behavior and systematic deceit" in the sprawling Car Wash investigation that has claimed scores of political and business scalps since it began in 2014.
Claims that Justice Minister Sergio Moro - the anti-corruption judge who handed ex-president Lula his first conviction in 2017, effectively ending both his election hopes and decades of center-left rule in Brazil - collaborated with prosecutors to convict and jail the popular ex-politician were a "setback" for the probe, Christopher Garman of Eurasia Group told AFP.
But strong public support for the anti-graft drive meant they were unlikely to result in overturning convictions or Moro's resignation. "In the public imagination it is not at all shocking or something that undermines the legitimacy of the whole effort," Garman said.
While the revelations would fuel the "free Lula" movement and "give fodder" for legal challenges to ongoing investigations, the most Lula could hope for was a fast-tracking of his release into home detention, he added.
"They do not change, in substance, the reason for the convictions even though they reveal inappropriate comments [by investigators]," said ex-president Fernando Cardoso in remarks published by the UOL website.
There could be "some fallout, probably, but no big deal," David Fleischer, a political science professor at the University of Brasilia, told AFP.
Debate over the leak of telegram messages erupted on Twitter, with #EuApoioLavaJato (#ISupportCarWash) and #EuApoioTheInterceptBR (#ISupportTheInterceptBrazil) among the top trending topics in Brazil, highlighting the country's deep political divisions under President Jair Bolsonaro.
Car Wash chief prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol posted a video on Twitter defending his team's contact with Moro, saying it was "normal" for prosecutors and lawyers to speak with a judge in the absence of the other party.
"Trying to imagine that the Car Wash probe is a partisan operation is a conspiracy theory with no basis," he said.
Among the claims, The Intercept said Car Wash prosecutors had expressed "serious doubts whether there was sufficient evidence to establish Lula's guilt."
The leaked material also shows "prosecutors spoke openly of their desire to prevent the PT [Workers' Party] from winning the [2018] election and took steps to carry out that agenda," The Intercept said.
