○ Whatever Kazakhstan's future turns out to be, Nazarbayev will always be a big part of its history.

○ More and more Kazakhs, especially young people, are starting to yearn for political, economic and social changes.

○ Stability one of the most important goals in power transition and future national development

People vote during presidential election in the village of Tuzdybastau outside Almaty, Kazakhstan, June 9, 2019. Photo: IC

In March 2019, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had been the president of Kazakhstan since 1991, abruptly announced his resignation. On June 9, Kazakhstan held presidential elections, and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev became the country's second president.

With Tokayev elected and Nazarbayev withdrawing from the political spotlight, Kazakhstan is ushering in a new era.

What will be the theme of this era: continuity, change, the social desire for political transformation, or the gradual opening up of  the Central Asian country?

Mixed feelings

On June 9, Nazarbayev's name did not appear on the tiny ballot paper for the first time in almost 30 years. For many older generation Kazakhs, the last time they experienced a transition of power of top leader was when the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s.

Feelings among different groups of people in Kazakhstan were a mix of confusion, worry, nostalgia, and the eager desire for social change. Nevertheless, no one can deny that Nazarbayev's influence can still be clearly felt in the election and in the country, even if he wasn't running in person.

Azamat Oyanov (pseudonym) still remembers his first encounter with Nazarbayev more than two decades ago. At that time, his community had just been built, and the mayor was accompanying President Nazarbayev on a visit. As a 6-year-old boy with no political awareness, he still remembers people welcoming President Nazarbayev like a superstar.

"I just remember that we were happy to wait for the president. Many women, in particular, screamed with excitement at the sight of him," Oyanov told the Global Times after casting his ballot.

Even candidates from different political camps remember Nazarbayev with fondness.

Toleutai Rahymbekov is the presidential candidate of the Kazakhstani Social Democratic Party Auyl. He praised Nazarbayev as a wise man who has taken a brave step. He told the Global Times that he believes Nazarbayev's role in the development of Kazakhstan cannot be praised too highly.

The capital of Kazakhstan, newly renamed as Nursultan, has always been a city that bears Nazarbayev's imprint. The post-Soviet strong political leader built the world's youngest capital from scratch and turned it into Central Asia's most modern and promising city.

His planning resulted in the construction of all manner of avant-garde modern high-rise buildings of different styles.

The Bayterek Tower, the most prominent structure on the city's central axis and a symbol of the Kazakh national spirit, is said to have been inspired by a sketch Nazarbayev drew on a tissue.

From the streets named after him to posters bearing his picture, Nazarbayev's presence can be felt everywhere in the capital.

Whatever Kazakhstan's future may turn out to be, Nazarbayev will always be a big part of its history.



Learning democracy



It would be simplistic to assume that Kazakhstan will continue on the same path due to Nazarbayev's role in the country's history.

At the beginning of independence, the energy export-oriented development strategy resulted in a miracle of economic growth in the country. 

However, a variety of disadvantages, such as single industry structure, extensive growth model and low marketization rate are becoming increasingly prominent, due to the fluctuation of international oil prices in recent years.

Weak economic growth and slowing improvement in livelihood also left people dissatisfied with the long-term governance and political corruption. More and more people, especially the young, begin to yearn for political, economic and social changes.

Beketova Aigerim, 30, is one of the young Kazakhs eager for social changes.

She told the Global Times that Kazakhstan correctly constructed a market economy and succeeded in becoming one of the 50 most competitive countries in the world after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

However, the political and economic model in Kazakhstan has barely changed and various problems have been growing since the beginning of the 21st century. This has made people realize that it is almost impossible to create an advanced economy without political reform. And the premise of political reform is a change in personnel, she said.

Beketova Aigerim also complained that the government had allocated too much money for hosting the Expo, which would do little to improve people's lives.

Azamat Oyanov thinks that people changed their perception of Nazarbayev around 2014. 

When oil prices were high, Kazakhs were mostly rich and enjoyed good social welfare, with no one paying attention to corruption and other problems. As oil prices fell in 2014, social, economic and political problems emerged, he said. 

This is especially true of corruption in the ruling party, which in his view has become a very serious problem, he added.

The election opened the possibility of more reforms and political openness to some Kazakhs. For example, Amirjan Qosanov, the candidate of the national-patriotic movement "Ult tagdyry" (Fate of the Nation), who was widely believed to be an "experienced opposition politician," was also allowed to register as a presidential candidate. Although he did not win the election, he garnered 16 percent of the vote. 

That would have been almost impossible under Nursultan Nazarbayev's previous years in power. According to Deutsche Welle, Qosanov himself was "surprised" by the fact that he was allowed to run, and saw it as a sign that the government wanted to show it was taking some steps towards greater political openness.

At his campaign office, Bakytzhan Abdiraiym, the President of Federation of Trade Unions of Kazakhstan, another party that also launched its own presidential candidacy this year, handed out campaign materials. 

Abdiraiym told the Global Times that the election was a good opportunity to provide a broader platform for criticism against the government. During the election period, the government will be relatively "vulnerable" and more open to criticism and different voices, which will help tackle problems that have not been addressed for many years.

Zhazira Duissenbekova, who works for Amanat, an NGO that promotes voluntary civic participation in the election process, can feel the progress of Kazakhstan's democratic process at the social level. 

"We still have a very immature political system and electoral process. This is the first election in which our first president Nazarbayev is not taking part. You have to understand that our respect for him is in our blood and DNA, so this time when he is not in the ballot, everybody is a little confused, because now we understand that we do have a choice," she told the Global Times.

"The candidates are even encouraged to be more active. This is a learning process for Kazakhstan to build a fair, structured and systematic electoral process," she added.

What is happening in Kazakhstan is bringing a taste of change to the whole of central Asia, which has long been seen as a conservative region. But in recent years things have begun to change.

Three years ago, Kazakhstan's neighboring Uzbekistan witnessed a shift of power: Shavkat Mirziyoyev took over from the country's political "strongman", Islam Karimov, and launched ambitious reform plans, including an anti-corruption campaign, improving governance, promoting economic marketization reform, and efforts to improve relations with its neighbors.



Finding a balance

A new leader needs to be more flexible while finding a balance between stability and change. 

For Azamat Oyanov, the presidential election has not necessarily been a satisfying one. 

He and some citizens in Kazakhstan are eager to see more "radical" changes and more fresh faces.

As the Chairman of the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev remains the decision maker when it comes to major issues, especially the appointment and dismissal of personnel and domestic policies, Talgat Keliyev, a political analyst told the Global Times. 

He believes that this does not mean Nazarbayev is unwilling to hand over power, but rather to avoid major mistakes and ensure the stability of the country during the transition process. 

Meanwhile, Nazarbayev is consciously avoiding interference in state affairs and gradually moving away from the center of policy decision-making, allowing Kazakhstan to slowly become accustomed to running without his involvement. 

For the country's two most important neighbors, Russia and China, this could be a positive sign. 

During Nazarbayev's administration, Kazakhstan maintained close ties with the two countries, which have committed huge investments in the fields of energy and infrastructure. 

This could be an opportunity to dispel uneasiness among local people. 

Take Beketova Aigerim, for instance, who also does not wish to see any extreme volatility in Kazakhstan's currency. "That might impact ordinary people's daily lives," Aigerim said. 

In March, when Nazarbayev announced his resignation, some citizens were so concerned about chaos that they lined up at the door of the currency exchange office overnight, trying to change their Tenge into US dollars. 

The newly elected Tokayev will not find it easy to walk the fine line between stability and change. He will need to reconcile both political strategy and political wisdom to meet the increasingly complex interests and demands of all walks of life in Kazakhstan. 



 
Newspaper headline: A new beginning