Photo: Xinhua

The growth prospect of China-US trade was likened to Beijing's weather on Monday - which turned for the better after a cold and gloomy week - by a senior official with the General Administration of Customs (GAC), citing the latest sign of progress in trade talks.

"As the trade talks make progress, we believe China-US trade will be like the weather in Beijing today, and achieve growth," said GAC spokesperson Li Kuiwen at a press conference on Monday, during which quarterly trade data was published. The Chinese capital saw its first sunny day on Monday after almost a week of gloom.

Analysts noted the importance of China-US trade but were cautious about its development of the fourth quarter.

In dollar terms, China's trade with the US stood at $402.66 billion for the first nine months of the year, down 14.8 percent year-on-year, according to Li.  

Exports to the US were down by 10.7 percent to $312 billion, and imports from the US were down 26.4 percent to $90.66 billion.

Li's analogy came as the latest trade talks between China and the US concluded last week.

China and the US achieved substantial progress in multiple areas after holding a new round of high-level economic and trade consultations on Thursday and Friday in Washington, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

US President Donald Trump tweeted on Sunday (US time) that a phase-one deal will be signed in the near future, and that China has already started buying "very large quantities" of US agricultural products. 

As the trade war bites, the US' importance to China as a trading partner has steadily declined. China-US trade was down 9 percent to 1.75 trillion yuan from January to June, and trade with the US accounted for 12 percent of China's total foreign trade. In 2017, the figure was 14.2 percent. Data for the first three quarters was not immediately available.

Tian Guangqiang, assistant research fellow with the National Institute of International Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the trade prospect between the world's two largest economies will depend on the outcome of a trade deal.

"If the US can strike a deal with China, its trade volume with China will be improved and its status as China's third-largest trading partner will be strengthened a great deal. If there is no deal, the US will trim down imports from China further, but it will still be manageable for the Chinese side as diversification efforts are paying off," Tian told the Global Times on Monday.

Bai Ming, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Monday that if there is some sort of deal, exporters and importers in the two countries may kick start projects that can be completed within a short time period, as they are still concerned about the flip-flop tendency of Trump policies.

"Those projects that require a long time period will continue to be put on hold," Bai said.

"Due to the quality and complementary nature of China-US trade, China should seize any opportunity to improve it but at the same time prepare for any flips in attitude by the US," noted Bai.

Chinese stocks opened higher on Monday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index up 0.68 percent to open at 2,993.96 points and closing at 3,014.07 points before mid-day.

Global Times


Newspaper headline: Customs official sees positive growth prospect in China-US trade