Domestic spending sets China’s economy ablaze

By Li Hong Source:Global Times Published: 2019/11/17 18:58:39

Illustration: Xia Qing/GT

Like the US, China's economy today is primarily driven by domestic consumption, thanks to the rapidly rising disposable incomes of the country's working-age population. The central government in Beijing could work out more policy tools to increase average wage levels while reducing their financial burdens. 

For all the hubbub of the trade war forced on China, Chinese families' spending power will act as the sea trench to fizzle the fire of additional American tariffs. 

The November 11, or the so-called "Singles Day," shopping frenzy is being held up as a bellwether of Chinese consumers' willingness to spend, and the sales numbers are very heartening.  

Alibaba group, the largest retailer in the country, raked in $38.4 billion sales, rising an impressive 25 percent from last year's $30.7 billion. JD.com, the runner-up online retailer, reported $29.1 billion in sales. Both retailers have described the day's selling performance as "witnessing airplanes flying at turbo speeds." 

The world has never seen such elevated sales in a single day, which is a confidence booster that China's economy, following the 16-month-long trade war, remains in very good shape. In the first 10 months of this year, retail volume rose 8.2 percent year-on-year. 

The economy is also bolstered by surging investment in infrastructure, including the expansion of expressways, modern ports, high-speed railways and 5G ultra-fast wireless networks. 

The allegation by the politicians in Washington that China's supply chain has been woefully battered by the US government's punitive tariffs is intentionally disparaging, which in reality is a rhetorical gimmick purposed to lure more outside capital to Wall Street. 

For the US economy that grew at a paltry 1.9 percent in the three months that ended September, it can hardly support the stock market's bubbled rush to its peak. An economic cycle easily changes course when the interest rate is sharply lowered. The distress there is building.

Most economists believe that China's growth is increasingly driven by domestic consumption and investment in infrastructure, which by all metrics is very healthy. These economists offer an option for the leadership in dealing with the trade war to wait it out because domestic spending has contributed to about 60 percent of China's GDP each year since 2015, while external trade made up an increasingly smaller portion of the GDP. 

To enhance China's ability to resist the US government's strategic squeeze through high tariffs is to bring the world's second largest economy to a quagmire, and Beijing needs to mete out more effective policy measures to fire up spending by all citizens. 

The State Council has announced it will revise policies that restrict Chinese urbanites from buying cars and other big-ticket items - including smart television sets, advanced laptops and tablets, as well as other types of new high-tech household appliances. 

In order to improve the air quality and reduce green gas emissions, China's all first-tier and second-tier cities, led by Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, should quicken their pace to incentivize car owners to buy new-energy vehicles (NEVs) and replace traditional internal combustion cars and SUVs.

The giant online business platforms such as Didi Chuxing and Meituan Dianping should be instructed to ask their drivers to use electric cars and electric scooters to run on the city roads. City governments ought to give the platforms tax credit and give the drivers sufficient subsidies to facilitate sales of NEVs. 

Also, to inspire home sale in the cities, the financial authorities could permit lenders to issue mortgages at a lower rate - instead of current rates that are 20 to 30 percent higher than the benchmark interest rate. This will encourage more people to buy their first homes in these cities. The government's strict restrictive policies on properties ought to be loosened to some extent. 

And, to ignite domestic discretionary spending, including tourism, education and health care, China needs to constantly increase income levels of its vast workers, and at the same time, increase the national coverage level of medical care insurance and pensions for all its retirees. 

To be specific, more tourism resorts should be developed, college standards upgraded to international levels and do its best to keep up the provision of high-quality pharmaceuticals. 

The author is an editor with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn



Posted in: INSIDER'S EYE

blog comments powered by Disqus