Japan looks to US gas as nuclear substitute

By Jiao Kun Source:Global Times Published: 2012-7-2 18:10:02

The Japanese government has just restarted the third reactor at the Oi nuclear power plant, and will fire up the fourth soon. This seems to make Japan's attitude on nuclear power ambiguous once more.

In May, Japan shut down the last nuclear reactor and bid farewell to its nuclear system which the nation had endeavored to develop for more than three decades.

Denuclearization is a stern test for Japan, which has 54 nuclear power plants in total. Before last year's Fukushima nuclear crisis, nuclear power made up nearly one-third of Japan's overall electric power generation.

Losing nuclear power exposes Japan to severe power shortages, and has caused Japan's natural gas imports from countries like Qatar to reach a historic peak. This is costing Tokyo dearly.

In the Kansai region, where the power shortage is most severe, this summer may yet see drastic failures. Japan has already asked enterprises to cut electricity usage, but many can do this only by halting production.

Facing this bitter reality, Tokyo made its latest, cautious decision to reactivate two nuclear reactors. But this is like trying to quench a bonfire with a cup of water.

So far there is no signal that Japan will return to its nuclear power era. Nearly 16 months after the Fukushima disaster, public opinion in Japan is still strongly opposed to nuclear power.

Since the release of the decision in mid-June to restart two nuclear reactors, tens of thousands of people have demonstrated before the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo against nuclear power.

In fact, the Japanese government has no particular desire to go back to nuclear dependence.

The Japanese government has officially started to prepare to import liquefied natural gas from the US after 2016. Tokyo has probably decided to rely on this to make up power shortfall.

The US has abundant reserves of shale gas. Traditionally it was rather difficult to explore such resources. However, new technologies have lowered costs. US domestic exploitation rose tenfold in the last decade, making it the world's largest producer of natural gas.

A couple of months ago, the National Interest magazine's website published an article by Charles D. Ferguson, president of the Federation of American Scientists, which said that shale gas has unparalleled cost advantages. The Economist magazine has also joined this camp, and described nuclear power as "the dream that failed."

The US not only bears high expectations on shaking off independence on imported energy, but also has plans to export its own natural gas to other countries.

Across the Pacific, Japan, facing a severe energy shortfall and with existing close ties to the US, has become a perfect potential client.

In May, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, published a commentary on its website, saying that after the Fukushima nuclear crisis, cheap natural gas produced by the US has become the best alternative for Japan.

The article also stated that in order to smoothly import natural gas from the US, Japan needs to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that the US is actively promoting.

Joining the TPP has been a political goal for Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda since he came to office.

If the TPP can really bring Japan cheap natural gas and thus lead it out of the current energy crisis, Noda will reap the benefits.

Given Japan's keenness to maintain a political and military alliance with the US over the past decades so as to win itself room to develop, Tokyo may find it difficult to reject constant lobbying from US political and business circles.

Domestic plight and the US push have now put Japanese leadership in a very subtle position.

Just restarting the minimum amount of nuclear reactors is probably, for the Noda administration, the best choice at the moment after all factors are taken into consideration.

The author is a scholar living in Japan. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

 



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