Chen Youjun (陈友骏) 

 

Michael Mandelbaum 

Editor's Note:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently visited Mongolia, Vietnam, Laos Cambodia and other neighbors of China. During the trip she repeatedly urged countries in the region to expand markets and political freedom. The trip is seen by some as the latest test case of the Obama administration's efforts to pivot US foreign policy toward Asia amid China's increasing sway in the region. Are the visits aimed at compressing China? How will the visits affect regional situation? Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Zhaokun talked to Michael Mandelbaum (Mandelbaum), director of the American Foreign Policy Program at the School of Advanced International Studies at the Johns Hopkins University, and Chen Youjun (Chen), an associate research fellow on international political economics with the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, on the issues.

GT: Clinton's trip to Laos is the first by an US Secretary of State in 57 years. The engagement comes as US relations also warm with countries such as Myanmar, Vietnam and Mongolia. Is Washington gradually compressing China's strategic space?

Mandelbaum: An increased emphasis on Asia in the US foreign policy is the natural consequence of the growing economic and political importance of Asia and of the expense and unpopularity of nation-building in places such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Also, China's Asian neighbors are worried about China and seeking good relations with the US as a hedge against China. At the same time, neither they nor the US wants to have an overtly adversarial relationship with China. Asian countries want good relations with both the US and China, but they increasingly believe that good relations with the US will help them maintain the kind of relations with China they seek.

Chen: It is true that Clinton's trip to Asia is an important step taken by the US to readjust its foreign policy and strategy and there are many discussions about whether her visits target China as she made a whirlwind tour of China's neighbors without coming to Beijing.

But I think the US "back to Asia" strategy is misleading, as Washington has never left the region. The US has always held huge economic and investment interests in the region. Also, we can't neglect the China-US contact factor during her trip. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi met with Clinton during an ASEAN meeting late last week in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

China and the US can play their special roles in regional affairs. There are many areas in which the countries can cooperate, such as the economic development of the Mekong River area. When small countries deal with relations with big powers, they tend to seek to achieve a kind of balance. I think this is likely to be the choice of many nations in the region as this is the best way to protect their national interests.

GT: During her visit to Mongolia, without mentioning China by name, Clinton took aim at the development model of "economic growth without democracy," urging other Asian countries to expand freedoms. Is the US setting up a race of development models?

Mandelbaum: Such "competition" as there is between the US and the Chinese political and economic models is inherent in the differences between them. Beijing is resentful of criticism of this kind, and I would not expect that to change, especially at a time of leadership transition.

Chen: There has long been discussion of the international community of the so-called Beijing Consensus and Washington Consensus.

However, I think there is no panacea for nations' development. Whether a development model is good for a country is largely decided by the country's political environment, economic foundation, and social, cultural and historical factors.

So a nation has to make a rational judgment about its national conditions before deciding on the model that fits them.

In dealing with neighboring countries, China will remain undisturbed and stick to its principles, as we have already seen some good results from the process.

For example, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has already been playing a role in promoting development of their relations. China has established a firm foundation for its foreign policy on the region and it needs to do more to convert its advantages into concrete results.

GT: Clinton is unveiling a range of economic initiatives and private-sector business deals during the trip and she said the US will grant $50 million for the development of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam to promote the Lower Mekong Initiative between the US and these nations. It is believed that the trip is intended to underline and convince regional nations that US interests in the region are not just security-based but economic as well. What is your view?

Mandelbaum: The US does have economic interests in Asia and certainly hopes to expand trade and investment in the region. The Asian partners of the US will welcome this, but will also want good economic relations with China. Whether ties with the US counter China's influence depends on what kind of influence China tries to have. 

Chen: The US is obviously advancing its Asia strategy in multilayered areas, including politics, military, economy and culture and so on.

So both the earlier US announcement of stepping up its military capability in the region, as well as its attention to economic cooperation with countries in the area, is merely one side of the Asia pivot.

Obama is facing the presidential election this year, but the US economy is yet to recover from earlier crisis. Developing closer economic and trade ties with countries in Asia might help boost the economic growth and employment situation in the US, which then is likely to increase the possibility of Obama winning the election.

But the US must see that its economic woes are derived from its structural problems. Increase of exports might help alleviate the situation but cannot fundamentally solve the issue.