Whether a Hong Kong ship carrying 14 activists from the Chinese mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong will arrive at the Diaoyu Islands as expected and how Japanese authorities respond to them are of great concern. Sino-Japanese relations are facing a severe test.
The dispute over the Diaoyu Islands is more controversial than the Southern Kuril Islands and Dokdo Islands.
The Southern Kuril Islands are home to a large number of Russian residents while the Dokdo Islands are firmly under the control of South Korea, which has military personnel stationed there. But the Diaoyu Islands are uninhabited. There is nothing on them.
Japan takes for granted that the Diaoyu Islands are under its actual control. This is wrong.
Chinese activists have landed on the Islands. In recent years, China's marine administration ships have stepped up patrols around Diaoyu. China has never backed from its claim that it has sovereignty over the Islands.
Japan's "control" over Diaoyu has no substance. China's efforts to stop Japan's development of the Islands have worked.
If Japan mistakes the Diaoyu dispute as being the same as the Southern Kuril Islands and Dokdo Islands, it is deceiving itself.
Japanese authorities may stoke extreme nationalist sentiment among the Japanese public and lead bilateral relations into an abyss.
Granted, the Chinese side should also be restrained. For the time being, the goal is to stress the controversy over the Diaoyu Islands and block attempts by Japan to legitimize its control, which will pave the way for future negotiations. Conditions are not right for China to "retrieve" Diaoyu now.
Actually, the Chinese public has a correct understanding of the dispute. The grass-roots activists have expressed their patriotism without crossing the red line. China and Japan in the past had similar judgments of the difficulty involved in solving the issue, which helped prevent it from spiraling out of control.
But Japan has stepped out of line in recent years. More politicians are applying to visit Diaoyu. Rightist forces have come up with the whimsical idea of purchasing the Islands by the government.
Japanese society is obviously using Diaoyu to vent its dissatisfaction against China. Diaoyu also serves to divert attention from Japan's losses in other territorial disputes. These radical acts are constantly spurring the Chinese public.
Japan has to make a choice: back up and create the conditions to reduce tensions over Diaoyu, or head into a full confrontation with China. Whatever Japan's choice, China will respond accordingly.
Japan must abandon the illusion that China will retreat in the face of Tokyo's provocation.
The Chinese public has becoming increasingly willing to safeguard the country's sovereignty over Diaoyu. China has no reason to compromise with Japan over the issue.