Mistaken logic threatens to turn space into debris-strewn battlefield

By He Yun Source:Global Times Published: 2012-9-24 21:00:03

Illustration: Sun Ying
Illustration: Sun Ying



This October 4 marks the 55th anniversary of the monumental ascent of the first man-made object into space, the Soviet satellite Sputnik. Since then, the envoys of mankind have surveyed the orbit of the earth, constructed research stations in space, landed on the moon, and extended their arms to the Red Planet.

With each successful launch, our reaching for the stars draws us closer to worlds that enrich our imagination. But it's not just that.

Today, there are about 1,100 active satellites. They are operated by 60 different countries. They play an indispensable role in almost every facet of our lives.

At present, there are 11 countries that possess space-launch capability but this number is growing. With our increasing dependence on space, it is important all the spacefaring countries behave responsibly, and that space does not turn into another battlefield. 

Based on this principle, the Outer Space Treaty was signed in 1967. It bars countries from placing nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction in space. It also establishes the norm of free access into space and a spirit of international cooperation.

However, the treaty itself did not limit the militarization or weaponization of space in other forms. Today, many satellites are used for military purposes. Certain space-based sensors and radars are considered by some countries as strategic assets for their military establishment. Militarization of outer space is now inevitable, but we can still stop the weaponization of outer space, preventing countries from deploying either defensive or offensive weapons in space or on space objects.

Since the 1980s, China has promoted many proposals focusing on the prevention of an arms race in outer space. At the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, China, along with Russia, presented their proposal on the "prevention of the deployment of weapons in outer space" in 2002, and then a draft treaty on "prevention of the placement of weapons in outer space" in 2008.

However, these proposals were rejected on grounds that the deployment of weapons in space would not be "verifiable."

Subsequently, Canada introduced its proposal on transparency and confidence building measures in space and the EU promoted a Code of Conduct in 2008, 2010 and 2012. All of these attempts have failed to produce an international consensus.

An important factor behind these failures is US objection to ideas that may limit its space capabilities. The logic is embedded in what the US National Space Policy calls the "inherent right of self-defense," the idea that the US needs to be uninhibited by any codes or treaties so it can develop any weapon systems, whether defensive or offensive, in order to exercise its right to defend itself and its allies where necessary. This is the logic used against space treaties, and it is the rationale behind US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

But there are serious problems with this approach. Any potential conflict in space will create massive debris in earth orbit. The debris, rotating at speeds of up to 28,000 kilometers per hour in low earth orbit, could cause great harm to just any object they hit. If the amount of debris reaches a critical level, the entirety of lower orbit will be rendered uninhabitable for man-made objects and no country's space assets will be able to function.

Furthermore, it is far better to keep weapons out of space than try to defend against them. Kinetic anti-satellite capability is comparatively easier to develop and deploy compared to defense systems designed to protect space objects from such attacks. Although the US is by far superior in space technology and may be able to deploy functional defense space systems in the future, it is very possible that cheaper countermeasures could be adopted to penetrate this defense.

For the US, Russia, China and other spacefaring countries, there is no better defense of our reaching into the universe than cooperation. It is our responsibility to establish the sanctity of outer space and space assets, leaving our children and grandchildren a clear universe and a route to the stars.

The author is a Fulbright fellow at the Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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