Slowdown demonstrates improved stability

Source:Global Times Published: 2012-10-19 1:00:04

The latest data released yesterday by China's National Bureau of Statistics showed 7.4 percent GDP growth year on year for the third quarter, the lowest in 14 quarters. Meanwhile, the figure for industrial output and consumption for September recorded a gradual recovery. The market has responded positively to the new economic data.

This round of economic growth wasn't led by expansive monetary policy and massive State-guided investment. It may still be too early to conclude China's economic restructure has achieved positive results, but the past heavy reliance on investment and external markets has showed signs of being reduced.  

If the judgment that China's economy has bottomed out is correct, the growth trajectory of the past few years is indeed encouraging. Pessimistic forecasts of China's economic future may not come to pass.

The idea that China's stability hinges on high economic growth has quite an audience. But few mass incidents in recent years have been related to an economic slowdown. The economic growth rate falling from double digits to below 8 percent didn't bring more social tension. The public has gotten used to lower economic growth.

The employment situation didn't see big problems and in the meantime, tax revenues and the fiscal situation have maintained smooth growth, giving civil livelihood and public welfare a major boost. All of these show that slower economic growth can still sustain China's comprehensive social policies and support continuous reform.

The unfavorable elements of the GDP have been gradually eliminated in the economic slowdown, for example, pollution-intensive industrial projects and investments with bad returns. There are companies that have endured shrinking profitability.

Will China's economic growth rate further drop, to say, below 5 percent? Few would make such a prediction for the foreseeable future. Given China's industrialization and urbanization processes are far from being finished, the economic growth rate is unlikely to come to a sudden stall.

From a micro perspective, the economy still has many problems, and may encounter new challenges at any time in the future.

But the important thing is that the country has grown accustomed to the challenges and is equipped with more solutions to tackle them. Thus the risk associated with an economic slowdown has been lowered significantly.



Posted in: Editorial

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