Next century will see no single global power

By Charles A. Kupchan Source:Global Times Published: 2012-10-23 0:25:05

The global distribution of power is fast changing, but opinions differ widely as to which country will emerge on top. Some analysts argue that the US hegemony is here to stay, others foresee a century dominated by China and East Asia, while another camp views India and Brazil as contenders for global leadership.

It should not be surprising that there is no consensus over which country will oversee the new global order. That's because the 21st century will not be dominated by any single country.

The US will do just fine, but the era of Western primacy is coming to an end. Meanwhile, none of the world's rising nations will alone have the combination of material and ideological strength needed to exercise global hegemony. This century will not belong to the US, China, India, Brazil, or anyone else.

The US, due to its economic resilience, rising population, and military superiority, will stay among the top ranks for decades to come. Nonetheless, the supremacy that the US and its Western allies have enjoyed since the World War II is fast fading. During the second half of the 20th century, the Western countries mostly accounted for over two-thirds of global output. But they now provide about half of global output, and soon much less.

In 2010, four out of the top five economies in the world came from the developed West: the US, Japan, Germany and France. Only one developing country, China, at No.2, qualified for this exclusive club. However, in 2050, according to Goldman Sachs, the US will be the only Western power to make it into the top five. China will be the No.1, followed by the US, India, Brazil, and Russia.

If China is poised to sit atop the global economy, why not expect a Chinese century? China's brand of state capitalism, despite its impressive economic performance, is not for everyone and its global ideological appeal is therefore limited. Moreover, China's sense of cultural exclusiveness suggests that its hegemonic aspirations may well be only regional in scope.

Like China, India has an expansive labor force. Indeed, it will soon overtake China's as the world's largest. Its embrace of democracy also gives India ideological appeal. But India's democratic institutions are becoming a liability. Lethargic bureaucracies, social stratification, biting inequality, and striking ethnic diversity make the Indian government weak and ineffective. India enjoys little of China's efficiency. Indeed, India's private sector has thrived in spite of, not because of, its democratic institutions.

Brazil is in important respects best set to emerge as a global trendsetter. It is a stable democracy, blessed with ample land, labor, and natural resources. Brazil also faces no geopolitical rivals and resides in a region that has been remarkably free of interstate war.  But Brazil is not headed for the top ranks. Its economy is expected to be five times smaller than that of China in 2050. And even if Brazil resides in a benign location, its distance from the Eurasian heartland will limit its geopolitical influence.

To coordinate their efforts to shape a more equitable and representative global order, the world's emerging powers have formed the BRICS group. But each of the BRICS members is following its unique developmental path and pursuing its own interests. The group is unlikely to be able to forge a consensus on a new global architecture.

At least during this decade and the next, the US will have more say than any other country in managing the coming redistribution of global power. Instead of fighting against the inevitable tide of change, however, Washington would be much wiser to help guide the world toward new forms of collective governance and cooperation.

Widening the circle and peacefully arriving at the next world by design is far preferable to a competitive anarchy arrived at by default as multiple centers of power vie for primacy.



The author is a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His book No One's World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn will be published in Chinese in October. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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