Crowds gather to watch the flag-lowering ceremony at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on July 1, the day that marks the founding of the Communist Party of China. Photo: CFP

With just days to go until the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which will formalize a once-in-a-decade leadership transition, voices clamoring for political reform have returned with a new fervor, wondering where China will go next.

Political reform, a term that was first mentioned in former leader Deng Xiaoping's speech in 1980, has lagged behind economic development, which has topped the country's agenda for 30 years.

Over the years, calls for political reform have grown more insistent. In March, in a press conference that was broadcast live around China, Premier Wen Jiabao again called for "urgent" political reforms. He warned that the enormous gains that China has made over the past three decades may be lost and the country could face another Cultural Revolution (1966-76) if reforms weren't instigated.

In addition to judicial and economic reform, political reform has now become one of the most widely discussed topics ahead of the crucial 18th Congress. On May 14, the People's Daily, the flagship newspaper of the CPC, ran a full page of articles hailing the steady progress China has made in its political reform.

Premier Wen struck a more cautious note: "New problems emerging in Chinese society, including a huge wealth gap, endemic corruption and a public distrust of the government, can only be solved with more economic and political structural reform."

Now or never?

Since the words were first uttered over 30 years ago, political reform has slowly taken shape, but without the breakthrough seen in economic reform, Wu Si, editor-in-chief of monthly pro-reform journal Yanhuang Chunqiu, told the Global Times.

"If political reform has 100 steps, then we have just walked 10 steps so far," he said. "The reform is taking place slowly and painfully because people at the top haven't reached an agreement on this issue yet," he said.

"The central government is still calculating the risks and benefits.  Once they have done the math, the real reform will take place," he continued.

But is the time now at hand? The public may have been given one possible clue from the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on October 22. The meeting, presided over by President Hu Jintao, announced that the CPC will amend the Party Constitution at the upcoming 18th Congress.

"The 18th CPC National Congress is being held at an important time, as China is currently working to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-around way, deepening reform and opening up and accelerating the transformation of its economic development pattern," the Xinhua News Agency quoted the statement as saying.

The time is right for political reform, Chen Baosheng, vice president of the Party School of the CPC, said in an interview with people.com.cn last Tuesday. "We ought to have a sober recognition that we still face many problems in political reforms. You can't dodge the obstacles, but must push forward."

One of the main problems he was referring to is growing social instability, a sign of political backsliding. The number of environmental protests in China grew by 120 percent from 2010 to 2011, said Yang Chaofei, vice-chairman of the Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences last Friday at a lecture organized by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. Meanwhile, the number of riots and other mass incidents reached 180,000 in 2010, four times higher than the previous decade, according to Sun Liping, a professor at Tsinghua University.

Growing social problems, pressures and corruption leave many Chinese anxious about the road ahead, despite enjoying massive improvements in their livelihood brought about by economic reform.

Yang Binglin, a professor with the China University of Political Science and Law, told the Global Times that Chinese people are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of political reform.

"Yes, the economy has grown greatly, but people are starting to question why they are still unhappy and worried," he said. "And they have begun to realize that economic reform alone cannot bring along administrative transparency, justice, and the proper protection of civil rights."

People have taken action to have their voices heard. Last week, thousands of protesters marched through the eastern city of Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, against the multi-billion-yuan expansion of a petrochemical factory. The local government decided to suspend the project after clashes broke out between protesters and police in front of the government compound.

Intra-Party democracy

However, political reform seems to have become a taboo subject in the face of resistance from conservatives, according to some veteran observers.

"There is a concern that opening up the political process to more interests might lead to the weakening of Party power," Shaun Breslin, director of the Centre for the Study of Globalization and Regionalization at the University of Warwick, told the Global Times.

And as one People's Daily's editorial points out, political reform in China will not imitate western political models such as competing political parties and general elections, but instead focus on "intra-Party democracy."

The term is not a new one. It was first used in the 8th CPC National Congress in 1956, but little has been done to turn it into a reality since then.

Qian Gang, director of the China Media Project, points out that political change in China over the past 60 years has been attended by changes in the meaning and frequency of political watchwords. Some terms, like "class struggle," have faded into history. In contrast, the term "intra-Party democracy" was picked up by the People's Daily in 2003, saw a rise in 2007 during the 17th Congress when Hu used it to promote further reforms, and is now firmly back on the agenda.

"Intra-Party democracy is an important guarantee for strengthening the vitality of the Party, and firming up the Party's unity and solidarity," President Hu said in his 2007 political report.

Kerry Brown, executive director of the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, told the Global Times that the biggest problem for the Communist Party of China is finding a way to hold itself to account to its own rules.

"Accountability is something that everyone needs. But at the moment, it is hard to see how a self-regulating body can not only regulate itself well, but also demonstrate that to those on the outside," he said.

Some experts believe that separating the functions of the government from those of the Party is one of the main tasks of political reform.

"Clearing away the over-intertwined link between Party and government will be a major breakthrough to boost the process of intra-Party democracy," Xu Yaotong, director of the Scientific Research Department at the Chinese Academy of Governance, told the Global Times.

Despite the prevailing disappointments and obstacles, some measure of political reform has slowly taken place at the grass-roots level. Since the 1980s, village elections rather than the appointment of officials have been promoted. In 1982, the Constitution first legitimized villagers' self-government. Now, competitive elections taking the form of "public recommendation, direct selection" have been applied among some high-ranking officials.

However, bribery and corruption have weakened these policies. In March this year, thousands of residents from the fishing village of Wukan, Guangdong Province, went to the polls to elect a new village committee after months of protests against local officials accused of stealing farmland.

The "Wukan model" was hailed by democratic campaigners, who saw it as a precedent for grass-roots democracy, but many argue the impact was limited due to its exceptional nature.

Zhang Xixian, a professor at the Party School of the Central Committee of CPC, told the Global Times that a multi-party system would not be the most effective way to promote democracy in China.

"The expansion of democracy under a single-Party system is a safe and reliable way to reform and greatly benefit China as a whole," he said.

He added that the imminent leadership changes would not shift the direction of political reform.

The road ahead

One old Chinese saying goes: "while the prospects are bright, the road has twists and turns." The slow pace of political reform is generally blamed for widespread corruption, which has resulted in the emergence of an interest group that does not wish to see any reforms.

A total of 18,100 officials have been punished for corruption involving construction projects in the past three years, Xinhua reported on October 16. Two days later, it quoted an official statement from the CPC as saying over 700,000 officials receive anti-corruption education every year from 56 provincial-level and 350 prefecture-level anti-corruption education centers.

In an article titled Let Power be Exercised in the Sunshine published in April in the Party's journal Qiushi (Seeking Truth), Premier Wen issued another call for an end to corruption, saying it will lead to the end of the ruling Party.

Wu Si has a different idea of how to end corruption and promote political reform. In an earlier interview, he called for a conditional amnesty for corrupt officials.

"If you were a corrupt official, reform equals suicide. People will come to punish you eventually, so why bother?" he asked.

"So if they can be granted a conditional amnesty, they can put their worries aside and steer the country into reform," he suggested.

His idea drew fierce criticism from people who said that if corrupt officials could get away with their crimes, it would make a mockery of justice and fairness.

In response, he said Chinese people have a higher tolerance of corrupt officials. "From protests to mass incidents, people's main demand is protection of their rights and property, not anti-corruption."

"Deep inside their heart, they take corruption for granted," he added.

Whether or not that is the case, the public's calls for the establishment of a declaration process of officials' property have grown. One official from Guangdong, whose family owns 22 properties, was suspended on October 18 after being exposed by a netizen in an online posting.

Zheng Yongnian, professor and director of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore, said openness is one of the essential characteristics of China's political reform.

"An open political system would gradually lead to limited political competition among political bases," he said, "If intra-Party democracy cannot be given substance, the future of the CPC is uncertain."

Nevertheless, experts believe that while China will soon see a change of leadership, radical change will not happen, as the country is not yet ready for it.

Fang Ning, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an op-ed piece published in the Global Times on Wednesday that China's political reform must be like "feeling for stones to cross a river."

"Many successful political reforms have no theoretical guide," he wrote. "We go forward by feeling for stones to cross a river, and then we will eventually succeed."