Bumpy world ahead
China's next generation of leadership is doomed to face a much bumpier and more challenging decade in terms of foreign affairs.
Analysts said that the diplomatic skills of China's new leaders will be tested not only because of increasing incidents of conflict overseas, but also the need for a comprehensive and straightforward national strategy that can guide the country beyond the once in a decade leadership transition.
Vital China-US relations
"China is entering a vital period of transition," said John Ross, a former economic adviser to London mayor Ken Livingstone, who is now a visiting professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
"Provided that no large policy mistakes are made by the new Chinese leadership, in five to seven years, the country's GDP will become the world's largest. However, it will not at that time become the strongest," Ross said, adding that the strength of US companies and their technological level will keep its economy the strongest in the world for at least 15 years.
Given this fact, the new Chinese top leaders, which are to be unveiled when the 18th CPC National Congress ends next week, must "make sure that people and governments of other countries understand China's growth is a 'win-win' for them and will aid their own prosperity" while maintaining rapid economic growth in the country, Ross told the Global Times.
"The China-US relationship is always the top topic in China's foreign affairs, said a Chinese strategist from the military, who declined to be named.
"Now the Chinese and the US governments have very few problems in communication, but mutual understanding of the two countries' people, especially mutual respect for each other's political system, is a problem that needs to be worked on," the strategist said.
"The next generation of Chinese leaders should further consolidate China's economic footing in the world, avoid slipping into an ideological conflict with the US, and not seek to challenge the US leading role in terms of military," he added.
Restive neighborhood
China's core national interests are essentially related to territorial integrity.
However, its concentration on developing its economy is being increasingly distracted by its neighbors' vocal territorial claims.
Japan's illegal moves in "nationalizing" the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea in September sparked waves of fierce anti-Japanese protests in China. Some Chinese even accused the Chinese decision-makers of "appeasing" Japanese domestic right-wing forces.
In September, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping called Japan's move "a farce" and urged Japan to "rein in its behavior and stop any words and acts that undermine China's sovereignty."
"The present conflicts are not due to mistakes in China's diplomacy. On the contrary, China's diplomacy has been rather skillful over issues such as the Diaoyu Islands," Ross said. "The tensions are caused by the attempts by anti-China forces in the US to weaken China. These attempts will continue in the next period."
Qu Xing, head of the China Institute of International Studies, also said he believes that the new leaders need "diplomatic skills and art" in handling the frictions with neighboring countries that have territorial issues with China.
Contesting powers jostle
In the Middle East region, the political and social turbulence dubbed "the Arab Spring" may continue.
"The revolutions might spread to the Gulf states, whose political systems are far from what the US has been pushing forward," Qu predicted.
"Tensions surrounding the Syrian domestic conflicts and the Iranian nuclear program also could potentially evolve into a regional war in the Middle East," Qu said.
Currently, the Syrian issue has become a focal point where world powers are attempting to reshape the politics of the region.
The US and its Western allies have been calling for a UN resolution that could authorize military intervention in Syria.
Russia and China, insisting on non-interference principles, have held back the West's efforts three times so far.
"China's current stance on Syria will not damage its position in the international arena. However, if the US and Europe and their allies succeed in establishing a pro-Western government in Syria, it would weaken China," Ross commented.
"It's not only a test of the diplomatic skills of China's new leaders. It's also the beginning of China's involvement in the international political games of big players. Compared with other powers, China badly needs a long-term national strategy that goes beyond the shift of its leadership," the military strategist said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to sack his defense minister on Tuesday was not simply due to corruption.
"The country has completed a cleansing and restructuring of its military, and now it is going to reequip and reenergize it. So it needs a new minister to carry out the job," the strategist said in an interview with the Global Times.
With regard to Europe being immersed in the debt crisis, Ross suggested China's new leadership take advantage of the opportunity to benefit from access to technologically advanced economies in the region. "The economic problems in the EU mean that more openings exist for China to strengthen its relationships with Europe. Moreover, this can help speed up the technological development of China," he said.