Food inflation drives up November CPI

By Li Qiaoyi Source:Global Times Published: 2012-12-10 0:05:04

 

China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, quickened to 2 percent in November from a 33-month low of 1.7 percent over the previous month, but remains subdued, the nation's top statistics bureau announced Sunday, extending more bullish sentiment on the world's second largest economy.

The acceleration in the November CPI reading is mainly driven by rising food inflation during the past month, according to figures released Sunday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Food prices rose 3 percent in November, whereas in October the growth rate stood at 1.8 percent, according to the bureau.

The producer price index, a main gauge of inflation at the wholesale level, also saw a rebound in November.

"Seasonality effects should be factored into the mild acceleration in the overall price level (in November)," Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, told the Global Times Sunday, noting that "inflation remains subdued, posing no big risk in the near future."

The latest round of recovery seen in China's economy has basically been mild rather than steep, and sluggish demand in global markets is expected to continue into next year, "both of which are unlikely to be supportive of high inflation over the course of 2013," Qu said, predicting the inflation rate would be around 3 percent in 2013.

In addition to inflation readings, the bureau also announced a raft of major economic indicators for November that reveal rising growth in industrial production and retail sales.

Fixed-asset investment growth was unchanged from January to November, compared to the first 10 months of the year.

"The economy is signaled to be on a firm recovery track, bouncing back from the slowdown," Qu remarked, "The gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow by 8.6 percent in 2013."

China's economy has slowed for seven consecutive months and weakened to 7.4 percent in the third quarter, according to the bureau.

"With rebounding GDP growth, rebounding earning growth and low inflation, we could say that the Chinese economy is now in a sweet spot and can stay in the sweet spot through the first half of 2013," Lu Ting, Hong Kong-based China economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, said in a research note sent to the Global Times Sunday.

But Lu was still concerned over a pickup in inflation in the second half of 2013, adding "side effects of policy easing such as government debt and shadow banking" by mid-2013 may also challenge the economy.

Analysts also said that the government would continue pro-growth policies next year, but there won't be any big stimulus, given the fact that the economy is already improving.

"The government is likely to sustain its current monetary policy stance that is proactive, yet stable," HSBC's Qu believes, speculating the central bank may announce further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio in 2013, but further reductions in interest rates are less likely.



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