North Korea hopes for pride, deterrent with new launch

By J E Hoare Source:Global Times Published: 2012-12-10 20:20:04

Illustration: Liu Rui
Illustration: Liu Rui

On December 1, the North Korean state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced that the country would launch a satellite-carrying rocket sometime between December 10 and 22, about one year after the death of former leader, Kim Jong-il on December 11 2011.

The announcement was not unexpected. For some time before, there had been reports of preparations for a launch at the Sohae base in the north of the country, close to the border with China.

However, KCNA reported Sunday the country was considering readjusting the timing. Nobody is prepared to buy off the North Koreans on this issue, and the launch may well go ahead.

The immediate international response to the initial announcement was negative. The US, Russia, South Korea and Britain condemned the proposed launch as in breach of the UN Security Council Resolution agreed on April 16 2012 after the last North Korean attempt.

The US said the resources being used would be better spent on the North Korean people. Japan announced that it was canceling the next round of talks with North Korea, due shortly in Beijing. China urged all parties not to overreact and to react calmly to the situation, although few doubted that the proposed launch was unwelcome.

This is not a new program. North Korea first attempted to launch a long-range missile in the late 1990s. It claimed that the attempt was successful and that a satellite was put into space. Independent evidence shows, however, that the rocket broke up soon after launching, as happened on two further occasions, in 2006 and 2009.

Despite the failures, however, there was much international concern since the technology for a satellite launch can equally be used for more aggressive purposes.

After its 1998 launch and former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright's 2000 visit, the North Korea announced and implemented a self-imposed moratorium on rocket testing as long as it was in direct talks with the US. When those talks came to an end during the George W. Bush presidency, so did the moratorium and ever since North Korean scientists have been working on the program.

North Korea's motives are mixed. It may genuinely wish to launch a satellite to improve its domestic communications facilities, although it has shown little interest in the idea floated by some of a satellite launch on its behalf. More likely is the wish to acquire a new and more powerful weapon to act as a deterrent against its perceived enemies, essentially the US.

There is also the question of prestige. To mark the centenary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, the country's leader from 1948 to 1994, 2012 was to be the year in which North Korea became a "strong and prosperous country." Although there are signs of some economic development, prosperity has been elusive, to say the least. A successful rocket would be some compensation.

The planned April 2012 launch was not only paraded as being in honor of Kim Il-sung but was also said to be the result of the direct orders of his son, Kim Jong-il. If the planned launch is successful, it would be a boost to the prestige of the current leader, Kim Jong-un, and a suitable end both to the centenary and to the year since Kim Jong-il's death.

The September 2012 US-South Korea agreement on the lifting of restrictions on South Korean missile development will also have played a role.

South Korea can now develop missiles able to hit any part of North Korea. The North Korean response was to claim that it had already got the capability to strike the US. A successful launch would bring such a possibility nearer to reality, but in reality one successful launch would not sweep North Korea into the ranks of ICBM-holding countries overnight.

Influencing the forthcoming South Korean presidential elections may also be a factor in the North's thinking, although it is unlikely that the South's electorate will see anything very positive in a rocket launch.

Whether it succeeds or fails, North Korea will be subject to further international condemnation and additional sanctions.

The author is a research associate at the Centre of Korean Studies, University of London, and formerly a British diplomat in North Korea. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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