Trade sees surprise slump

By Chen Dujuan Source:Global Times Published: 2012-12-11 1:10:05

 

Chinese traders deliver packages to a clothing market in Beijing on Monday.  China's monthly trade surplus fell to $19.6 billion in November, down 38.6 percent from October, the government said Monday, as weak overseas demand weighed on the world's second-largest economy.  Photo: AFP
Chinese traders deliver packages to a clothing market in Beijing on Monday. China's monthly trade surplus fell to $19.6 billion in November, down 38.6 percent from October, the government said Monday, as weak overseas demand weighed on the world's second-largest economy. Photo: AFP




 

China's exports and imports growth slowed to an unexpected pace in November, amid global economic uncertainties, customs data showed Monday, making the country unable to meet its annual trade target.

In November, China's exports grew 2.9 percent year-on-year, far below September's growth rate of 9.9 percent and October's 11.6 percent, the General Administration of Customs said Monday on its website. The imports growth rate for the month remained flat year-on-year.

The data represented the weakest trade performance of the world's second largest economy since August.

"China's lackluster exports showed the weak recovery in overseas demand and the unchanged import rate represented sluggish domestic demand," Chen Hufei, a senior macroeconomic analyst at the Bank of Communications in Shanghai, told the Global Times Monday.

The US faces "fiscal cliff" negotiations and the eurozone crisis has yet to be solved, Chen said, noting that the weak demand in these developed economies has also negatively affected growth and demand in emerging economies.

In November, China's exports to the US fell 2.6 percent year-on-year, the first decline in 21 months and exports to the EU declined by 18 percent. During the same period, trade growth between China and major emerging economies slackened from double digits to single digits. For example, China's exports to Brazil in November grew only 0.7 percent year-on-year, much slower than the 26.4 percent pace experienced a year earlier.

The slowdown in trade growth in November was partly caused by the large trade figures recorded one year earlier, but in fact, both exports and imports increased in November compared with the previous month, Li Jian, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, told the Global Times.

Exports rose to $179.4 billion in November from $175.6 billion in October while imports also climbed to $159.8 billion from $143.6 billion in the same period.

"However, it is impossible for China to achieve its 10 percent annual target for trade growth, as external demand is unlikely to see a big rebound in the next few months," Li said. In the first 11 months of 2012, China's foreign trade rose 5.8 percent year-on-year, customs data showed.

Li noted that China's trade is expected to grow 6 to 7 percent throughout the rest of 2012 and would continue to have slow growth in 2013.

Chen said he believes that China's trade situation will improve in 2013.

"Exports will slowly pick up because of the modest recovery in China's major trade partners such as the US. The central government's policies to stabilize growth are expected to take effect next year to boost domestic demand, so as to increase imports," Chen said.

The trade data came after the government Sunday released much more bullish figures. The inflation index quickened to 2 percent in November from October's 33-month-low of 1.7 percent. Industrial output picked up 10.1 percent in November year-on-year.

The country saw a seven-quarter-low GDP growth of 7.4 percent in the third quarter and is expected to grow 7.5 percent throughout the year, the slowest in more than a decade.

China's economic slowdown was largely caused by withering external demand, as China relies heavily on exports, which accounted for more than one quarter of GDP in 2011, Yao Jingyuan, former chief economist with the National Bureau of Statistics, told a forum Sunday.

"However, for a big economy like China, economic growth should not basically rely on external demand," Yao said, noting that China's rising costs in raw materials and labor as well as the appreciation of the yuan have made exports even more difficult. 

The previous growth pattern can't be sustained and China needs to achieve future growth by boosting domestic consumption, Yao noted.

 



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