Loans point to slow recovery

Source:Global Times Published: 2012-12-11 21:15:06

China's banks lent more slowly than markets expected in November while the pace of total financing eased, but analysts said the economy remains on track for a modest recovery due to accommodative policy.

Chinese banks extended 522.9 billion yuan ($83.73 billion) of new local currency loans in November, the central bank said Tuesday, missing market expectations of 550 billion yuan.

The November new loan data, released by the People's Bank of China (PBC) on its website, implies total lending is on course to exceed 8.5 trillion yuan in 2012, up from 7.47 trillion in 2011.

China's top leaders have pledged to continue policy fine-tuning in 2013 to ensure stable economic growth.

"We think the monetary policy is still loose, and (authorities) will maintain the current loose stance for the next several months. That is strong enough to keep the economic recovery on track," said Zhang Zhiwei, China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.

"We don't think the government needs to cut interest rates. Most likely they will just keep the ongoing credit loosening."

The modest credit data followed data Monday that showed exports growth slowed sharply to a much lower than expected 2.9 percent in November, underscoring the global headwinds dragging on an economy which is showing otherwise solid signs of a pick up in domestic activity.

Data at the weekend showed both industrial output and retail sales rose in November at their fastest annual pace in eight months, reinforcing the view that growth in the Chinese economy is finally picking up after a long slide.

China's annual economic growth dipped to 7.4 percent in the third quarter, its weakest pace since the first quarter of 2009 when China was reeling from the global financial crisis.

Growth is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter following a raft of measures, including two interest rate cuts this year, reductions in bank reserve requirements and faster approvals for infrastructure projects.

China's total social financing aggregate, a broad measure of liquidity in the economy, stood at 1.14 trillion yuan in November, down from 1.29 trillion yuan in October, according to the PBC.

China's central bank is watching its overall social financing aggregate more closely than bank loans as it steers policy and moves ahead with market-based interest rate reforms, a senior central bank official said in November.

New yuan bank loans accounted for only 58.2 percent of the country's total financial aggregate in 2011.

Reuters



Posted in: Markets

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