Republican infighting will only make Democrats stronger in long run

By Charles Gray Source:Global Times Published: 2013-1-10 19:43:01

In the aftermath of the fiscal cliff debate, the Tea Party and other conservative groups have threatened to mount primary challenges against those Republicans who voted to raise taxes, setting the ground for a bruising political battle in the near future.

This internal Republican conflict may pave the way for long-term gains by the Democratic Party.

Ironically, this threat to the Republican Party has come about due to the secure position many Republican representatives enjoy in their home districts.

Because of a long history of gerrymandering, many House districts are designed to ensure that one party will always win the popular vote.  

Nate Silver, an analyst with the New York Times, has determined that only 35 congressional districts can be considered truly competitive in terms of both parties having a chance to claim the district. In most other cases, the election that determines who will go to Congress is the primary, rather than the general election.

However, primaries generally see a low voter turnout that is restricted to the most dedicated party members.

Because of this, motivated groups like the Tea Party can have a tremendous impact on who actually becomes the candidate.

In these districts, even being generally popular among most Republican voters is no guarantee of safety from a conservative primary challenge.

This was proven in the 2012 elections, where a number of Republicans who were seen as being insufficiently conservative lost to Tea Party-backed candidates.

Because of this, the House is likely to see an increasingly conservative Republican membership that will continue to make unconditional demands on the administration.

These representatives are unlikely to face any real danger of losing their seats and so will have little reason to compromise with the Democrats or even moderate Republicans.

As a result, most House Republicans will move further to the right and eschew any type of bipartisanship whatsoever. In the long run, this will almost certainly benefit the Democratic Party.

While most House Republicans do not need to fear a general election challenge, the same cannot be said for Republican senators, governors and presidential candidates.

However, they will have to deal with the negative publicity generated by a House membership that increasingly is only interested in appeasing their most radical voters.

Furthermore, they will continue to alienate moderate Republicans and unaffiliated voters, without whom the GOP cannot remain a nationally competitive party.

In fact, by engaging in tactics such as holding the debt ceiling "hostage," these representatives may very well make it impossible for the Republicans to recapture either the Senate or White House.  

While this will lead to a short-term deadlock in the US government, the long-term effect will be an increasingly dominant Democratic Party that has secure control of the Senate and the Presidency.

In addition, current demographic and political trends will likely result in a growing number of formerly Republican districts becoming open to a Democratic challenge, which could bring the House back into serious contention.

The best alternative for the GOP, which would be a move to break the stranglehold the radical right currently has on many primaries, will also benefit the Democrats, as it will signal a bruising battle for the future of the Republican Party.

Such a GOP civil war could very well see large segments of voters moving to independent parties or simply ceasing to be active in politics. In either case, the Republicans could find themselves relegated to being the minority party for some time to come.

Regardless of how it occurred, it is plain to see that the continued influence of the Tea Party and similar organizations over the Republican Party is one that will only lead to the continued decline of the GOP.

Ultimately, the group that should be most thankful for the rise of the Tea Party will be those Democrats who will reap the rewards of the GOP's ideological conflicts.

The author is a freelance writer based in Corona, California. charlesgray109@gmail.com



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