Peace process not Israeli voters’ top concern

By Alex Pevzner Source:Global Times Published: 2013-1-31 18:33:01

 

Illustration: Liu Rui
Illustration: Liu Rui



The Israeli election results surprised everyone, confounding experts who said Israel was moving to the right. Instead of voting for hard-liners, Israeli voters chose to focus on social issues such as education, taxes, and the cost of living.

So should China get its hopes up for a more stable Middle East? The door to peace may have opened slightly wider, but a lot will also depend on Israel's neighbors.

Palestinian leaders were publicly fretting about the new hard-line government of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu coming out strengthened. The Arab League called for all Arab citizens of Israel to vote to ensure their rights.

At 67.8 percent, the turnout was the highest in a decade, but the results were nowhere near meeting expectations.

It's not that Israelis aren't concerned about the rest of the Middle East, which is undergoing its biggest transformation since the 19th century, but voters signaled to Israeli politicians that there are issues even more pressing for them than the question of whether Iran will get the nuclear bomb or when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will fall.

Indeed, Iran was conspicuous in its absence during the election campaign. Israelis worry much more about the rising cost of living, soaring real estate prices, equality in army service, and the quality of education.

Even the left-wing Labor Party leader, Shelly Yachimovich, didn't dwell too much on the peace process during the campaign, attacking big business instead and promising to boost social spending in the budget if elected.

Netanyahu's right-wing Likud Party ran on a joint ticket with former foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Is Our Home party, with the combined list totaling 42 seats in the outgoing parliament. But the list suffered a serious blooding, getting only 31 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

While the joint ticket is still the biggest, Netanyahu will certainly have to create a coalition government with left-wing and centrist parties as voters expressed their displeasure with the government's economic performance.

The biggest surprise of the election was the new Yesh Atid ("There is a future") party led by former talk show host and journalist Yair Lapid.

The centrist Yesh Atid channeled the public anger expressed in mass protests in the summer of 2011 and promised clean government, more money for education, and transparent government.

The most vocal promise of the campaign was equal army conscription, a painful subject in Israel where young ultra-Orthodox Jews are mostly exempt from compulsory military service, as are Muslim Arabs.

Lapid also didn't focus much on the peace process, appealing instead to the disaffected middle class, and his list received 19 seats, more than Labor's 15, making him Netanyahu's most senior coalition partner.

Netanyahu will likely try to form a stable coalition with a range of parties from across the political spectrum, instead of a narrow government with only right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties.

While Israel still regards Iran's nuclear weapons program, which is in contravention of several UN resolutions, as an existential threat, Israel has said it will give a chance to a diplomatic solution led by the US.

It's yet unclear how the new government would act if sanctions and diplomacy fail to halt Iran's quest for a nuclear weapon.

Contrary to widespread belief, two thirds of the Israeli public is in favor of a Palestinian state (the "two-state solution"), so the new center-right government will likely try to restart the stalled talks with the Palestinians in an effort to advance peace.

Netanyahu has repeatedly extended his offer to meet Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, but Abbas refused, demanding the freezing of settlement activity in the West Bank as a precondition to talks.

Much will depend on Israel's neighbors. The Middle East is amid a wide conflagration, with regimes teetering on the brink of collapse, and Israelis may be wary of far-reaching concessions to leaders who may be gone tomorrow.

Israel, the US and Syria's neighbors are all nervously waiting to see what will happen to Syria's large arsenal of chemical weapons once Assad falls.

Still, Israeli elections may yet bring a more centrist government that can advance talks with some good will on both sides.

The author is CEO of Pevzner Greater China Communications, a consultancy. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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