Dawn of A new era
The most talked about events in the mobile phone arena over the last week have been overwhelmingly centered on the annual Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona, which once again delivered on its reputation for creating major buzz in the industry.
For China Mobile, the world's largest mobile operator in terms of subscribers, this year's MWC was a landmark. The Chinese telco titan has shown a growing eagerness to take the lead over smaller domestic rivals with the coming of a new era in the country, and it took advantage of the event by shining with an unprecedented gala.
"TD-LTE will be widely adopted in China," Xi Guohua, chairman of China Mobile, said on Tuesday in a speech at the seventh LTE TDD/FDD International Summit during the MWC. He highlighted some of the company's recent moves, like the launch of a TD-LTE commercial network in Hong Kong and commercial trials of the network in cities such as Hangzhou.
With Xi's announcement of two spectacular goals to be achieved by the carrier over the coming year - the establishment of its fourth-generation (4G) TD-LTE (also referred to as LTE TDD) network in more than 100 cities in the Chinese mainland and the procurement of more than 1 million TD-LTE terminals - China Mobile showed its 4G ambitions in a most determined way.
If the ambitious goals materialize, the Chinese market will be equipped with the world's biggest LTE network by the end of the year, with "more than 200,000 base stations covering more than 500 million people," according to Xi.
The goals, set up against the backdrop of FDD-LTE (also known as LTE FDD) continuously overshadowing the TD-LTE alterative according to statistics, are widely believed to give a boost to China's homegrown TD-LTE technology, which aims for formidable global popularity.
"Undoubtedly, China Mobile's ongoing network rollout is important to LTE TDD's success," Daryl Schoolar, principal analyst for network infrastructure at London-based telecom industry consultancy Ovum, said in a brief commentary released on Tuesday.
Schoolar remarked that "China Mobile now has many allies in this effort," so much so that even Verizon Wireless, the biggest mobile service provider in the US, was reported to be "wanting multi-mode LTE smartphones to enable roaming with China Mobile and other LTE TDD operators."
4G phones on horizon
China Mobile's unveiling of its long-awaited LTE phones with the operator's first-ever exhibition at the MWC has especially piqued the interest of many Chinese tech aficionados, as the lack of devices supporting TD-LTE technology has long been regarded as a hinderance to the popularity of the carrier's 4G push.
In addition to new models of data-enabled MiFi (portable Wi-Fi terminal) devices, China Mobile debuted four TD-LTE smartphones at the MWC, in partnership with handset manufacturers including HTC, LG, Huawei and ZTE. The four TD-LTE handsets all sport high-end specs such as super high-definition displays at a minimum of 4.7 inches, multi-core CPU, and cameras with at least eight megapixels, according to a statement sent to the Global Times on Tuesday. Information on exact release dates and prices is yet to be known.
"With the rapid development of TD-LTE, it is estimated that TD-LTE terminals will reach the level of 3G terminals gradually in this or next year," China Mobile's Xi believes.
In a research note sent to the Global Times on Wednesday, Hong Kong-based Nomura Equity Research's analysts Danny Chu and Laetitia Yu forecast that "Samsung will also launch TD-LTE handsets," as they believe "the upcoming Galaxy S III for TD-LTE should appeal to China Mobile's high-end subscribers."
The South Korean handset maker had until the fourth quarter of 2012 maintained its crown in the smartphone world, shipping a total of 62.9 million units across the world to account for 29 percent of the global total, research firm Canalys revealed in early February. In China, where shipments of smartphones made up 73 percent of the country's mobile phone market during the quarter, Samsung also held the first position.
Xi also promises the launch of low- to mid-range phones to reach a wider user base, but Nomura analysts noted it will take time for a mass adoption of 4G services in the country, while estimating that "the first few models of TD-LTE handsets will be available in (the second half of 2013)."
TD-LTE handsets priced at around 1,000 yuan ($160.59) are expected to hit the shelves in 2015, Li Yue, chief executive of China Mobile, said back in mid-January.
Should we believe the hype?
Looking to China Mobile's 4G efforts, industry watchers remain cautious about hoping for the possibility of any rapid success.
"While 4G will become the dominant wireless standard this year in areas like North America and Europe, the next-generation wireless standard is only starting to make its way in China, with China Mobile spearheading the effort," Zhao Hailin, an analyst at IHS iSuppli, said in a research report last week.
It is more of a longer-term battle, Zhao noted, predicting a total of 1 million subscribers to be claimed by China Mobile over 2013, with the carrier expanding its 4G deployment and trials across the country.
Over the next four years, however, the telco may gradually see its "efforts to develop local 4G wireless infrastructure in advance of its two domestic rivals pay off," according to IHS iSuppli, which projected that by 2017 China Mobile's 4G subscribers will reach 228.8 million to represent 52 percent of the country's total 4G users.
This compares to 2017 predictions of 4G users for China Unicom and China Telecom, the two smaller rivals of China Mobile, with the figures standing at 114.4 million and 96.8 million, respectively.
For those who remain cynical about China Mobile's 4G bet, the telco's resonant announcements at the MWC are taken with a grain of salt.
Huang Meng, an industry analyst with Beijing-based market research firm Analysys International, who maintains a dim outlook for the carrier, told the Global Times on Wednesday that "China Mobile's betting on TD-LTE to reignite its engine of growth is still a ways off, given the fact that hardware manufacturers, especially overseas big names, have yet to show enough eagerness to join the TD-LTE spree."
Even the Chinese government, which has shown itself to be greatly supportive of the home-grown technology, should be alert to any hasty dive into the 4G era, Huang said, warning of over-optimism on China Mobile's 4G efforts.
Be that as it may, the gigantic telecom operator is unlikely to succumb to fears and doubts, no matter how plausible they might sound.
"China Mobile firmly believes that TD-LTE technology and industry is turning into maturity, and conditions of large-scale deployment have been possessed," Xi, the company's Chairman, asserted in his Tuesday speech.
