China's NK policy choices are limited

Source:Global Times Published: 2013-3-12 23:48:01

The situation on the Korean Peninsula has continued to escalate. US nuclear submarines will remain in South Korean waters after the US-South Korea military drills. There have been strong voices within South Korea calling for the country to develop its own nuclear weapons. South Korea, aligned with the US, and North Korea have been provoking each other, while strategists attempt to predict the future of the peninsula.

China is in an embarrassing position. None of the three are likely to take China's advice, while all of them have expectations of China. North Korea hopes that China will behave like a friend who is willing to pay for the North's mistaken nuclear policies.

South Korea and the US would like China to behave like a responsible power by uniting with them to put sanctions on the North.

China is not completely detached from the conflicts  on the peninsula, nor has it effectively intervened in the situation. The relationship between China and North Korea is far less close than the military alliance between South Korea and the US.

The North is China's strategic shield. This view is not outdated generally, but doubts have risen over its accuracy. The hard stance of the North toward the South and the US has pushed Washington to seek help from Beijing in terms of strategic diplomacy. The troubles the North creates will also divert the US attention away from containing China. But at times, North Korea causes more trouble for China than the US.

China's North Korea policies should be based on current geopolitics and the country's national interests. China doesn't have a public enemy in Northeast Asia. Nor does it have effective leverage to influence the situation on the peninsula, which puts China in a passive position there.

China shouldn't entirely change its policy on the peninsula. But if it doesn't alter policies as the situation on the peninsula changes, it may fall behind.

Should China need effective leverage in terms of peninsula issues? Or should it concentrate on raising its capabilities, thus freeing itself to an extent from the unstable situation on the peninsula?

If China chooses the first option, it needs to strengthen ties with North Korea. The North would need to promise not to cause friction and China would need to assist the North with a security shield. This would be a huge policy adjustment, and China would need to negotiate with the US and South Korea.

If China chose the second option, it would mean a re-adjustment of our strategies toward the North, which would bring more variables. This is hardly workable.

The only choice for China is to maintain its policies. This fundamentally is because China still needs to build up its power.

China should have a peaceful mind toward the messy situation in the peninsula. It should also maintain a pragmatic attitude toward pursuing national interests there.



Posted in: Editorial

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