Kenyatta rule unlikely to shift Kenya's economic, foreign policy

Source:Xinhua Published: 2013-4-9 19:59:18

Kenya's leadership transition on Tuesday is unlikely to lead to major changes in the country's economic and foreign policy, but will likely usher in renewed emphasis on strengthening ties with the world's newest economic powerhouses, local experts predicted.

International Relations Expert Professor Munene Macharia, said newly-elected President Uhuru Kenyatta, who served in President Mwai Kibaki's cabinet as finance minister, is unlikely to overhaul economic policies, but would be looking to enhance trade ties with East African neighbors.

"The economic policy is likely to emphasize more on the policies that will lead to wealth creation so that the country can share resources out among all citizens of Kenya," Macharia told Xinhua in an exclusive interview in Nairobi.

Kenyatta's inauguration guest-list has an emphasis mostly on African nations, whose leaders were expected to dominate the lavish oath-taking ceremony organized in the capital on Tuesday.

Macharia said having served in Kibaki's government, the 51-year- old Kenyatta, the son of founding President, Jomo Kenyatta, is likely to maintain the same economic policies.

He said it was easily predictable that Kenyatta would stick to the economic blueprint, Vision 2030, initiated by Kibaki.

The blueprint seeks to enhance Kenya's position as a regional economic powerhouse, being the transport, financial and telecommunication hub.

In the blueprint, Ethiopia, Kenya and South Sudan, jointly agreed to pursue the construction of a second port in Lamu, leading to an entirely new transport infrastructure for Eastern Africa region.

"The primary focus for Kenyatta's government will be to strengthen its ties with the East African Community (EAC) member states. As close neighbors, Kenya deals with them more closely compared to the rest of the world," Macharia noted.

The analyst said he expects the international community especially the United States and the European Union to adopt "a cautious" diplomatic approach to Kenya because Kenyatta and the deputy president elect William Ruto are accused at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for being most responsible for the post election violence of 2007/08 that killed more than 1,300 people and displaced

Political pundits have been categorical that the impending trials for both Kenyatta and Ruto will have a significant bearing on Kenya's political and economic future.

Both Kenyatta and Ruto are accused of committing crimes against humanity to include murder, forced eviction and rape as post election skirmishes rocked Kenya in 2008.

Hague-based international criminal court has summoned Ruto and Kenyatta to attend the opening trial session in person on May 28 and July 9 respectively.

Analysts fear that the lengthy trials for both Kenyatta and Ruto at The Hague bode ill for Kenya's stability in the event they win the March 4 elections.

Macharia however expects the African Union to react positively and will mention Kenyatta's name in the congratulatory message.

"Kenyatta's vote is an indication that Kenya is not a banana republic. It shows Kenyans can make independent decisions," said Macharia.

Kenya under Kenyatta is seen working towards building new ties with the rest of Africa, where some of the world's fastest growing economies are found.

In their rebuttal, the ICC suspects, Kenyatta and Ruto, reiterated that Kenya is a sovereign state and it is the prerogative of citizens to elect leaders of their choice in line with the constitution.

"It would be important to maintain good relations with emerging countries which form the BRICS grouping [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa]. These countries have already shown willingness to strengthen relations with Africa and gave pledged to promote mutually beneficial relationships," Macharia, a University don, noted.

Kenya's imports from China, India and Brazil have grown exponentially in the last few years to replace those from its traditional partners like the United States and Britain m although foreign firms from the two dominant Western powers remain in control of the key sectors of economy.

The March elections were the first under Kenya's new constitution, promulgated in 2010 in a bid to promote devolution. Kenyans voted for a president and a host of local positions in 47 newly created counties.

Meanwhile, Kenyatta's ability to deal with domestic politics and unify the country following the completion of the elections would also test his readiness to lead.

Although Kenya still remains largely divided after the disputed Presidential vote, experts expect Kenyatta's near-absolute parliamentary majority to aid him through the political scene.

"The relationship between Jubilee (Kenyatta's Coalition) and the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD)--led by Raila Odinga- -will also depend on whether politicians put national interest instead of pursuing personal agenda," said Macharia.

Kenya is currently a champion of regional infrastructure projects like the rail, road and oil pipeline projects planned to originate from the Lamu Port in the coastal region and link to Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda.

Any sort of political bickering may send wrong signals to foreign investors who are keen to invest in the country, he said.

Posted in: Africa

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