Concerns as growth dips to 7.7%

By Li Qiaoyi Source:Global Times Published: 2013-4-16 0:53:01

A vegetable seller waits for customers in a wet market in Shanghai on Sunday. China's economic growth slowed to 7.7 percent in the first quarter, data showed, below expectations. Photo: AFP
A vegetable seller waits for customers in a wet market in Shanghai on Sunday. China's economic growth slowed to 7.7 percent in the first quarter, data showed, below expectations. Photo: AFP
 

        Daily Speicals

China's economy lost momentum in the first quarter, according to figures released Monday by the nation's top statistics bureau, heightening concerns over the ability of the Chinese economy to serve as the primary driver of the global economic recovery.

During the first quarter, China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.7 percent year-on-year, below previous market expectations of growth above 8 percent.

Other major economic indicators announced by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) also came in below previous projections.

Industrial production growth fell to 8.9 percent year-on-year in March from 9.9 percent during the first two months, while growth in urban fixed-asset investment edged down to 20.9 percent between January and March.

Retails sales growth saw a slight rebound to 12.6 percent year-on-year in March, which was still lower than expectations.

Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses took a hit on Monday after being impacted by the weak economic data, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down 1.13 percent and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.15 percent.

"The weaker-than-expected GDP figure was mostly weighed down by slow consumption growth," said Yang Weixiao, a senior macroeconomic analyst with Lianxun Securities Co.

The sluggish consumption was estimated to have wiped roughly 0.3 points off GDP growth, according to Yang's calculations.

Stressing that the weak economic data was unexpected, particularly against the backdrop of strong lending growth seen during the same period, Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JP Morgan Chase & Co in Hong Kong, said in a note sent to the Global Times Monday that a number of factors including the government's latest crackdown on lavish spending by officials, easing inflation and falling growth in urban residents' disposable income during the period have weighed down domestic consumption.

But Zhu believed a slide seen in investment efficiency was the main cause of the cooling economy, despite the continued rising fixed-asset investment.

Domestic consumption contributed 4.3 points to overall GDP growth, while investment and net exports contributed to 2.3 points and 1.1 points respectively, Sheng Laiyun, a spokesman for the NBS, told a news conference on Monday.

Market analysts had previously reached a consensus that there would be a further rebound in China's economy in the opening quarter of 2013, which recovered to 7.9 percent in the final quarter of 2012 from a three-and-a-half-year low of 7.4 percent during the third quarter.

Economists said meanwhile a rebound is expected in the second quarter.

"With an alleviated fear on tightening and low inflation, we expect GDP growth to climb back to around 8.0 percent if the ongoing H7N9 Bird Flu could be under control," Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists led by Lu Ting said in a research note sent to the Global Times.

In spite of a consensus that economic activity will pick up in the second quarter, some foreign investment banks have grown more bearish about the growth prospects for the year. JP Morgan Chase & Co announced Monday a revision of its GDP growth forecast to 7.8 percent for 2013 from the previous 8.2 percent, and Nomura Securities on Monday revised down their forecast to 7.5 percent from 7.7 percent.

Although the economic data delivered a shock to the market, few economists are anticipating big stimulus measures from the new government to prop up economic growth, especially after the latest symposium on the economic climate presided over by Premier Li Keqiang, the first held by the new Chinese government.

At the symposium held in Zhongnanhai Friday, which gathered leading economists and business executives, Li highlighted the importance of improving the quality and efficiency of the economy and pushing forward economic restructuring and upgrading, news portal people.com.cn reported Sunday.

Li's remarks were seen as indicative of the new Premier's resolution to tolerate slower growth for more balanced, sustainable growth over the longer term.

"The slight downward revision in the first-quarter GDP growth is more of correction of inflated expectations of prosperity," Lu Zhengwei, the Shanghai-based chief economist at Industrial Bank Co, told the Global Times, while downplaying fears over the economy.

If the government continues to use its previous strategies to stimulate growth via massive proactive policies, risks are likely to increase resulting in problems in the future, Yang said.

 



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