Last year, a new phrase has been used by leaders on both sides to describe the nature of the relationship the US and China should be building. Leaders on both sides have referred to the importance of establishing "a new type of great power relationship."

This concept has not been particularly fleshed out on either side. As best I can discern, the thinking that lies behind the phrase is the realization that the history of the rise of great powers has rarely been smooth or easy.

The reaction of the dominant power to the rise of a newcomer frequently has been to see the rising power as a threat, and for the newcomer to see the dominant power as an obstacle. 

Conflict, including life-and-death struggles, has often accompanied such developments. Some analysts have made a living out of warning of the inevitability of a similar clash between the US and China.

The objective of those who have articulated the desirability of "a new type of great power relationship" is precisely to avoid such a clash between the US and China, so we should respect and appreciate their intent.

My view is that one makes a mistake by over-generalizing about such historic precedents. Theory matters, but the facts matter too. Or as a Chinese statesman said, seek truth from facts.

If the rising and existing powers see their raison d'etre as to establish or maintain dominance, then conflict is much more likely. That was the case, for one party or the other, in the power transformations I've cited above.

But history is contingent on decisions by leaders and peoples, not a set of Newtonian principles that tell us what will happen.

The specific facts of the case also matter. One cannot simply transplant a set of past events on present and future reality and have a rational basis for prediction.

That said, we should not dismiss those warning of a descent into conflict between the US and China as Chicken Littles who say the sky is falling. 

If we study the history of US-China relations over the last quarter century, we see signs of the kind of dynamic that the pessimists warn us about.

These signals include high levels of suspicion of the motives of the other, attribution of aggressive or sinister intentions, a belief on the Chinese side that the US side seeks to contain China or worse, and a belief on the US side that China seeks to supplant the US and corrode its global influence. There are numerous manifestations of these trends. 

There are at least four broad dimensions to the US-China relationship that provide major opportunities for cooperation or conflict.

The first is bilateral economic relations and competition in third country markets.

Then there are international issues of interest to all countries and on which the US and China have disproportionate influence because of their power, such as climate change, cyber intrusions, coordination of fiscal and monetary policies of major economic actors, counterterrorism, nonproliferation, global energy security, disease control, and foreign aid.

A third is political and security competition in the Asia-Pacific area as Chinese military power expands and the US rebalances its capabilities toward the region.

And the fourth is seeking solutions to conflicts, civil disorder, rogue behavior, or instability in third countries around the world.

The relationship will only be as durable as the weakest link. If, for example, we descend into an arms race and military confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region, obviously whatever other areas we cooperate on will be overshadowed by these events. 

Similarly, if our economic relationship is seen as unbalanced or unfavorable to one side or the other in a period of hard times, one should not expect cooperation on other matters to save the relationship from tissue damage. 

But we have very bright and capable people, outside and inside the government, working on all these issues, and to acknowledge that they are daunting is not to suggest they are unsolvable.

The article is an excerpt from a recent speech by Jeffrey A. Bader, former senior director for East Asian affairs in the Obama administration and former assistant US trade representative, at the Eighth Annual Barnett-Oksenberg Lecture on Sino-US Relations in Shanghai. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn