The "Hong Kong land for Hong Kong people" project, announced by the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) government last September, is expected to be maintained in the long term through legislation according to recent reports. Two land parcels in Kai Tak chosen for trial areas have received a positive response from the market. The HKSAR government wants to legalize this project to show the government's determination for protracted implementation.
Around 1,100 residential apartments have been established in the two trial land parcels and they are required to be sold to local permanent residents only. In the next three decades, owners of the flats are restricted from re-selling them to non-local permanent residents. This project is introduced to guarantee that Hongkongers can purchase properties at reasonable prices and prevent increasing demand from outsiders, especially Chinese mainlanders, from raising the price.
Theoretically speaking, less demand will lead to lower price. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the total number of demand remains unchanged. Restrictions on trial land parcels will only transfer the price rise to other areas.
Moreover, according to the 21st Century Business Herald, as of last September, there were around 1.4 million private apartments in Hong Kong. The number of apartments, approximately 1,100, is too small to affect the overall property market.
In fact, if we analyze the statistical data year by year, it can be found that the total amount of private flats has increased from 1,102,900 in 2010, to 1,110,600 in 2011, then to about 1.4 million in 2012, while the vacancy rate is gradually declining, which shows that the demand for properties in Hong Kong is real instead of merely a market bubble.
Against this backdrop, it is unlikely that the project of "Hong Kong land for Hong Kong people" can work for its intended purpose.
It has received a positive response from the public, which is one reason the project has been extended. However, this just proves that the price of the flats will not be as low as expected.
The two trial plots in Kai Tak have been won by China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd for a total of HK$4.54 billion ($585 million). Since the firm has invested so much, coupled with construction costs and the need to make a reasonable profit, the price of these two areas will not necessarily be lower than the market price.
Many restrictions targeted at outsiders, in particular mainlanders, have been published in recent years. Besides the project of "Hong Kong land for Hong Kong people," there's another rule according to which mainlanders leaving the city will only be allowed to take two cans of formula, intended to make sure of "Hong Kong formula for Hong Kong babies."
Many netizens are wondering online whether there will be further restrictions to guarantee Hong Kong electricity, Hong Kong restaurants, and so on. If all these restrictions come into effect, will Hongkongers' daily lives be well guaranteed then?
Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu (6th century BC) once described an ideal state as having small countries with small populations which are completely isolated from each other. This would be impossible even in the old days when China pursued the closed-door strategy.
Despite its limitations, economic liberalism still makes sense, which makes the restrictions doomed to be ineffective in the long run.
Moreover, restrictions based on identity will reduce the capital flows and block the operation of the free market. As a financial metropolis known for its international free market economy, Hong Kong's image will be affected.
In the foreseeable future, the "Hong Kong land for Hong Kong people" project will gain no more than applause. It meets with some people's political needs to provoke contradictions between the central government and the HKSAR government, as well providing a method for some grass-roots Hongkongers who harbor grievances to vent their resentments.
However, as Hong Kong cannot close its door to outsiders forever, real solutions are needed rather than delaying tactics.
The author is a freelance journalist based in Beijing. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn