Australia in transition from mining boom to more balanced economy

Source:Xinhua Published: 2013-7-29 15:42:53

The new financial year represents a critical economic crossroad for Australia as the fourth largest Asian economy shifts, mid-stride, from an investment-led mining boom to a more balanced, equitable economic framework.

Returning from the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Moscow last week, newly minted Treasurer Chris Bowen has been tasked by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to prepare Australia for its greatest economic challenge in 30 years.

The mining boom began in the mid-2000s leading to sharp increases in prices for mining-related commodities.

It has, to date, delivered mixed impacts across Australian states and territories, and across industries, accounting for almost 10 percent of GDP, but more than half of national exports, effectively pushing up the value of the dollar, adversely affecting sectors like manufacturing and tourism.

Bowen's challenge is the so-called Australia's 'Dutch Disease' whereby a boom in an exporting industry, in this case mining, raises the terms of trade and the value of the local currency, delivering negative impacts across other critical, yet dormant industries.

After discussions with his counterparts, including Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei and Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso, Bowen said that business, unions and government must now unite to boost Australian competitiveness in non-mining sectors "to take advantage of emerging opportunities and promote new sources of growth."

"With the slowing of China's investment-driven growth, Australia's mining investment boom is drawing to a close... Global developments are placing Australia on the cusp of an important economic transition," Bowen said recently.

The Australian economy grew for 18 consecutive years before the global financial crisis, following a fiscal stimulus package worth over 50 billion US dollars, a Reserve Bank slashing of interest rates to historic lows, and continued demand for commodities, especially from China.

The Australian economy actually rebounded after just one quarter of negative growth.

On the upside, Australian net debt, which peaks at 11.4 per cent of GDP in 2014-15, is a fraction of other developed economies. Australia is one of only eight countries with a Triple A credit rating and a stable outlook from all major credit rating agencies.

But these figures reflect a commodities boom that is now done and dusted. The critical question is how to revive the traditional sectors like retail, left behind by the two-speed economy.

In an interview with Xinhua, Huw McKay, executive director and senior international economist at Westpac said: "We have the greater than expected deceleration in the mining industry - sharp cutbacks amongst both the metals and energy - so the capital expenditure pipeline we were looking at just 12 months ago is looking very, very different and that's got implications for the rest of the economy as we try to transition from mining investment led growth to growth in the non-mining economy."

According to McKay, recent Australian accounts have confirmed that the national economy has been growing below trend recently and is expected to continue in the near term as the economy adjusts to lower levels of mining investment.

"A year ago we were growing at three percent and two percentage points of what was coming from the mining related activity," McKay said, adding that in the coming fiscal year Australia will see a negative contribution from the mining industry.

While the mining sector remains the largest contributor to Australia's national output, with a series of major investments, such as the 40 billion US dollar Gorgon Liquid Natural Gas project, symbolic of the expanded resources sector, an increasing focus in 2013 on services and high-tech industries has helped Australia to diversify the economy.

Today, Australia's total value of GDP rests at around 1.5 trillion AU dollars ($1.38 trillion), making it the fourth largest economy in the Asian region, but there are challenges ahead, among them, a volatile Australian dollar.

The "Aussie" has dropped from more than 1.05 US dollars since mid April, whittling away the buying power of Australians who travel for holidays overseas while bolstering budgets for inbound travelers.

Victoria Tourism Industry Council (VTIC) chief Dianne Smith told Melbourne's Sun Herald that while the impact of a lower currency was yet to play out in the industry, confidence was on the rise.

"Clearly the falling dollar makes it less expensive for international visitors but there is a double impact because it does have an impact on the domestic market where a lot of domestic travelers will be prompted to consider a local destination," Smith said.

According to McKay, the dollar will be at the heart of reviving Australia's dormant export sectors.

"Previously it was very restrictive for growth because it was overvalued by at least ten percent. So this is taking off the pressure of those export industries which have been suffering, like higher education and tourism particularly, and this is probably an even bigger factor its taking pressure off these industries that compete directly with imports," McKay said.

Posted in: Asia-Pacific

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