Regional powers' mixed reactions to imminent Syria strike

Source:Xinhua Published: 2013-9-1 10:41:38

As the United States and its allies ramp up their rhetoric backing a military strike on Syria, the drum beat of war has drawn mixed reactions from Mideast regional powers, ranging from deep concern over sectarian strife or terrorist attacks to preparing for involvement in the conflict.

Iran may directly involve in conflict

As Syria's main ally in the region, Iran cannot stay aloof from the US attack as a disinterested spectator, according to Iranian officials and analysts.

Iran's close relations with Syria date back to the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979 and have been steady since then. During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), Syria was the only Arab state that provided Iran with political, moral and military support.

Other than historical ties, Iran also relies heavily on Syria to carry out its strategies in the region.

In his latest comment on Syria, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of "disastrous" consequences of a possible US attack on Syria, saying military intervention will be a "catastrophe" for the region.

The Middle East is like a "powder keg" and its future will be unpredictable if something happens, he said. Iran will become involved directly in Syria when it finds that world and regional powers like the United States, Britain and Saudi Arabia are already there attacking Bashar al-Assad.

"In such a scenario, Iran will do whatever it takes to keep Assad in power," Sadeq Zibakalam, a professor on politics from Tehran University, told Xinhua on Thursday.

Iran will consider "US military bases wherever in the region as a legitimate target," he said.

In addition to offering support as it has done in the past, Iran may have to confront the West in the battlefield as well, he said.

Syria is a key logistic route bridging Iran's support with anti- American and anti-Western forces in the region, such as Hezbollah, Hamas and other Palestinian groups, Zibakalam said.

"If the Syrian regime is no longer there, it would be tantamount to the collapse of Iranian strategic policies in the Middle East."

Iraq is deeply concerned over terrorism

Already mired in sectarian conflicts and worsening violence, Iraq, as one of Syria's neighbors with a long shared border, will be severely affected if some Western countries launch military strikes against Assad's administration, Iraqi observers said.

When meeting US Ambassador to Iraq Robert Beecroft on Thursday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki voiced his opposition to any military actions on Syria that seek to "punish" Damascus' alleged use of chemical weapons.

Maliki has announced the highest level of alert in Iraq to "avoid any possible serious consequences that could result from the Syrian crisis as there is talk about possible strike."

"The security situation (in Iraq) has repercussions from the developments in Syria and the recent wave of bombings is an extension of the (tense) situation in Syria, as there is active participation by the terrorists from Syria in Iraq," Saied al- Khafaji, a professor of politics at Mustansriyah University in Baghdad, told Xinhua.

"Toppling Assad will have catastrophic consequences on Iraq and on the region as a whole," Khafaji said. "The biggest loser will be Iraq as a result of its long common border with Syria and the incubators of Syrian terrorist groups that exist particularly in (Iraq's) western desert and other areas."

Ibrahim al-Ameri, a lecturer of politics in a Baghdad college, said there is a clear division in the attitudes of the Iraqi factions toward the Syrian conflict, as some support the Shiite-led Syrian administration and others are against it, and any Western strike on Syria may complicate the political and security scenario in Iraq.

Lebanon is on verge of sectarian strife

Given to Lebanon's long history of involvement in the wars of major powers and its close relations with Syria, the country will be significantly affected if the United States decides to strike its neighboring Syria, local analysts told Xinhua.

Since Hezbollah's involvement in the Syrian crisis, the political division in the country has become sharp. Furthermore, the recurrence of bombings in Lebanon, which left at least 70 people dead and over 894 injured in less than two months, has put people on pins and needles.

It is obvious that if the US attacks Syria, the situation in Lebanon would become more complicated.

"If it is really a limited strike, nothing will happen, but if it is a big one with effects on the battlefield in Syria, then Hezbollah will react based on the situation on the ground," Kassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst and writer with close connection to Hezbollah.

Another political analyst, Georges Alam, said that Lebanon is on a very dangerous slope toward becoming "an open scene for the settlement of the regional problems."

He expressed fears that his country may not be able "to sustain the repercussions of the regional conflicts," and the current sectarian incitement may lead to "destabilization of the Lebanese entity."

Turkey is on high alert for Syrian reprisal

Turkey, once an ally of Assad but now a leading voice urging his ouster, has reportedly provided Syrian rebel leaders with sanctuary. If Ankara joins a Western military strike in Syria, it should brace for possible reprisal attacks from Syria and Iran, analysts said.

"The Syrian regime may resort to attacks against Turkey to punish its involvement in the likely upcoming intervention by the coalition of Western powers," said Hasan Kanbolat, director of the Ankara-based think tank, the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies.

Ankara is already on high alert for the possible use of chemical weapons against Turkey, with its Disaster and Emergency Management Agency stepping up measures in provinces along the Syrian border.

Turkey's involvement may drag the country deeper into the Syrian conflict, said Bulent Kenes, editor-in-chief of Turkish daily Today's Zaman.

Besides, Turkey may be susceptible to sectarian divisions, which have taken their toll on such Middle East countries as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

"Turkey's internal fractures and tensions may also be negatively affected by the Syrian turmoil," said Ihsan Yilmaz, professor of political science at Istanbul-based Fatih University.

Another blowback for Turkey would be increasing terror threats from the banned Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), which is affiliated with Syria's Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD). The PYD is trying to establish an autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria, aided by PKK militants from Turkey, Iran and Iraq.

According to Kanbolat, the Syrian government may provide significant support to the PKK and its Syrian branch to attack Turkey.

"This may also derail the settlement process that Ankara launched at the end of last year to settle the country's Kurdish problem," he noted.

Israel is on defense, not offence

Israel will maintain its non-interference policy if the United States decides to strike Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons, local analysts said.

The chances of Israel taking part in a US attack on Syria "are slim to none," as a disassociation policy is in the interest of both Israel and the United States, Jonathan Spyer, of the Interdisciplinary-Center in Herzliya of Israel, told Xinhua.

On Wednesday, Israel approved a limited draft of reservists amid growing tensions surrounding a possible US strike on Syria following an alleged chemical weapons attack by the Syrian government last week.

However, different from last draft during the operation of Pillars of Defense last November, the reservists drafted this time are from defensive units, which are expected to fend off threats rather than launch a ground offensive.

On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said "we are not part of the civil war in Syria, but if we identify any attempt whatsoever to harm us, we will respond and we will respond with strength."

Netanyahu maintained that Israel's only interest in the Syrian crisis is preventing advanced missiles from being delivered to the Lebanese military party Hezbollah.

"Israel's concern is with the outcome (of a US attack). If the (Syrian) regime acts in a limited way, everyone will forget and go on. But if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad retaliates heavily against Israel, this will be another story," Maoz said.



Posted in: Mid-East

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