"Very slight chance" for La Nina or El Nino development during next one or two seasons: WMO

Source:Xinhua Published: 2013-10-7 19:53:21

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Monday that there is a very slight chance for La Nina or El Nino development during the next one or two seasons.

WMO said in its latest EL Nino/ LA Nina update that the latest outlooks from international climate models and expert opinion suggested that sea surface temperatures and atmospheric anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Nino or La Nina are most likely to remain neutral through the end of 2013 and into early 2014.

Since the boreal spring of 2012, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators in the tropical Pacific, such as sea surface temperatures, sea level pressure, cloudiness and trade winds, have generally been at neutral levels, indicating that neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions have been present, it said.

Since May 2013, sea surface temperatures have been well below average in the far eastern tropical Pacific, only recently returning toward normal.

However, these cold sea surface temperatures have been positioned too far to the east to be considered indicative of a basin-wide La Nina episode, even though they caused some minor impacts over local climate conditions in western parts of South America, according to the WMO.

WMO's National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other agencies will continue to monitor the conditions over the Pacific and provide outlooks to assess the most likely state of the climate through the remainder of 2013 and into early 2014.

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