Experts urge Gulf Arab region not to "write off" India

Source:Xinhua Published: 2013-10-14 10:07:06

Despite the weakness of the Rupee amid India's ongoing economic uncertainty, economists and decision makers in Dubai warn the Gulf Arab states of labeling the subcontinent a "failed" BRICS state.

No country of the emerging BRICS (the acronym stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is facing stiffer economic challenges than India.

The ongoing weakness of the Rupee which hit end of August an all-time low at 68.80 to the dollar before recovering some ground, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced last Tuesday its forecast for India's gross domestic product for 2013-2014 to 3.8 percent from 5.6 percent has triggered a heated debate in Dubai whether or not the "Indian patient" would trigger negative spillover effects to the booming Gulf Arab states around Saudi Arabia, also called the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).

Despite India's uphill struggle to get its currency and economy back on track, experts told Xinhua that the oil-rich Gulf Arab countries should not turn a blind-eye on the world's second largest country in relation to total population. Fears of repercussions for the GCC were unfounded, said Jeff Singer, the CEO of the Dubai's global financial center DIFC.

"There is so much entrepreneurship and vibrant innovation in India, I am sure they will manage the turnaround and find their way into the Middle East," said Singer in an interview with Xinhua.

Hence, despite all odds, investing in India, rather than ignoring the subcontinent should be the catchword, said Tim Reid, the regional head of commercial banking of HSBC Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

India is the biggest trade partner of the 6 GCC states, according to the India's minister of commerce and industry Anand Sharma, his country's trade with the GCC would reach 175 billion U. S. dollars this year, Sharma said on Feb. 18 this year during a visit to Dubai.

According to the IMF, the sluggish economy of the subcontinent is crippled by a market-distorting, paralyzing bureaucracy, rising sovereign debt levels and a growing current account deficit.

Earlier in the week, Reid published HSBC's trade forecast report on GCC-India relations, saying despite all challenge, India would remain among the top five trading corridors for the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Reid said by 2020, India would overtake the United States to import the highest share of goods for infrastructure as it invests in building its domestic networks.

India requires approximately one trillion dollars worth of infrastructure investment by 2018. The UAE pledged 2 billion dollars of investments in Indian infrastructure earlier this year, added Reid, and that would proof that the most diversified Gulf state was not losing trust into New-Delhi.

The DIFC's CEO Singer also pointed to the fact that many wealthy Indian entrepreneurs who built businesses over generations in the GCC would function as a bridge between the two regions, keeping bilateral trade and investment flows alive.

Indian national Yusufali Ma, for example controls the retail chain Lulu Hypermarket in the UAE, which generated 4.5 billion dollars turnover in 2012, according to the weekly Arabian Business. Ma just opened the chain's 100th store and in 2005 he was the first foreigner to be elected to the chamber of commerce and industry in the UAE capital Abu Dhabi.

Other examples of India's ultra-rich are Dubai's Dr.B.R. Shetty who runs the hospital chain NMC or P.N.C. Menon, also the chairman of Sobha Developers in Oman who completed 85 real estate projects in the Gulf Arab region since he founded his company in 1976 in the sultanate.

There are over 3 million Indian expats who live in Saudi Arabi. In the UAE, the 2 million Indian nationals make up a third of the total population.

Money or remittances sent from Indian expats to relatives back home will remain an important financial link, despite the economic problems in India, said Dr. Nasser Saidi, a Dubai-based government consultant and former minister of economy in Lebanon. Saidi quoted a recently published World Bank report on remittances which showed that the GCC accounted for 48 percent to total remittances to South Asia region. India tops the list of global recipients with an estimated 71 billion dollars.

These money transfers from the GCC provide an important flow and monetary lifeline for many families in India. Nevertheless, India's outdated bureaucracy is still a burden of investments from institutions, said Singer.

"Recently, Sarasin-Alpen, a DIFC-based investment bank run by Indian banker Rohit Walia, raised between 500 million to 1 billion dollars financing within 6 months to build a sugar factory in the UAE," said Singer, "In India, this deal would have taken 4 years because of the red tape."

On Sept. 11, the Doha-based daily The Peninsula said that the Qatar's sovereign wealth funds like the Qatar Holding had plans to make investments in India's power sector, ports, roads, agriculture, real estate and other infrastructure development projects, but due to some policy-related hurdles and bureaucracy the decision is on hold.

This lead Nagavara R.N. Murthy, founder and chairman of India's IT giant Infosys to point out that "the macro-economic troubles are far from over, companies do not only face a devastating slowdown at home but tighter regulations when doing trade abroad," he said on Sept. 18 at the 35th global finance congress Sibos in Dubai.

Earlier on Sept. 1, the country's largest daily The Times of India said that because of the slump of the Rupee imports came briefly to a halt in Mumbai, one of the major port cities and regarded as the subcontinent's gateway to the Arabian Gulf countries.

The balance of trade between the two sides also remains highly skewed in favor of the GCC. In 2012, approximately 25 percent of Saudi Arabian exports to India were oil and gas, said HSBC's Reid.

"Diversification means that the biggest growth in exports to India will be in chemicals, which will account for over 80 percent of total exports from Saudi Arabia to India between 2013 and 2030, " he added.

India's exports to Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, were just 2. 9 percent of total exports in 2012." Howecer, this share was expected to increase to 4 percent by 2030, ranking it India's fourth largest export destination, said Reid.


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