Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (left) talks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang during an exhibition of high-speed railways at Queen Sirikit Convention Center in Bangkok on Saturday. Photo: AFP

Recent visits by China's top leaders to Southeast Asian nations have helped boost market sentiment toward the world's second-largest economy, in the run-up to what some believe may be the most significant plenary session of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in decades.

The economy is expected to have grown by over 7.5 percent in the first three quarters, in line with the official GDP growth target of 7.5 percent for the whole year, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Thursday in Brunei while delivering a speech during the 16th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Plus Three Summit.

Growth data for the third quarter is scheduled to be announced Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics, and stronger growth figures for the quarter are expected, following a series of promising economic indicators in July and August.

The first two quarters saw a continued slowdown in GDP growth, according to data from the bureau.

Premier Li has vowed to stick with the country's reform program and his expression of confidence in growth prospects came after President Xi Jinping made similar upbeat remarks in a speech on October 7 during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, held in Indonesia.

"I have full confidence in the development prospects of the Chinese economy," Xi said, citing reforms and innovation as new growth engines despite headwinds in the global economy.

The statements have been seen as hailing a new era for the economy after three decades of reform and opening-up.

Back in mid-September, Li said at the Summer Davos forum, held in Dalian in Northeast China's Liaoning Province, that the economy is on course for a "second season" with a strong commitment to reform.

The convening of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in Beijing in November is expected to bolster the drive toward a healthier, more sustainable growth pattern for the nation's economy.

A key gathering

The plenary session "will definitely be a shot in the arm," Lian Ping, Shanghai-based chief economist at Bank of Communications, told the Global Times Thursday.

A broad set of ideas designing the road map for the economy's longer-term rebalancing are expected at the session, said Lian, who also said that a rough time frame for the road map would be given as well.

A number of issues of significance in the country such as reforms of land policies, fiscal and taxation regimes and a household registration system will be addressed at the session in a comprehensive and systematic manner, Lian noted.

"Reform and opening-up serve as a critical strategy to determine modern China's destiny and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. There should never be an end to the practice and development, emancipation of the mind, and reform and opening-up," said a statement released in late August by the 25-member political bureau of the Party's Central Comittee, which vowed deepened reforms in an all-round way, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

Historically, the third plenary session of the CPC Central Committee is usually devoted to the rollout of important new policies, while the first and second plenary sessions usually focus on personnel reshuffles.  

With the upcoming Third Plenary Session set to outline a map toward the economy's "second season," it will also remind people of the achievements of the first season, as spearheaded by the Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee in 1978 when the nation first adopted reform and opening-up policies.

"I expect this session [to be held in November] to be another significant milestone in China's economic and policy development, comparable to that of 1978," Wang Qing, a professor of marketing and innovation at Warwick Business School in the UK, told the Global Times over the weekend.

After years of phenomenal GDP growth, "a series of new policy measures and economic levers need to be devised to effectively deal with challenges facing the economy in the next 30 years," Wang said.

She mentioned four key challenges to be confronted: a shift from export and investment-led growth to domestic and consumption-led growth; a change from a focus on GDP growth to improving the general wellbeing of the Chinese people; a transformation from low-cost, low-value-added manufacturing activities to high-quality, innovative and high-value-added activities; and a transition from inward foreign investment flows to outward foreign capital flows. 

No instant results

Despite optimism surrounding the upcoming session, economists also said that patience will be needed.

The session will point to the future direction of the economy's goal-setting, especially in the financial arena, with an acceleration of financial reforms expected to be included in the session's agenda, Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, told the Global Times Thursday.

She expects detailed measures for deepening market-based deposit rate reforms to come out around the year-end.

"But you wouldn't expect announcements of specific policy details at the session. It will only propose outlined drafts for the economy's future hopes," Yao noted.

Whether all of the important challenges faced by the economy's restructuring will be discussed at the session and which issues might be prioritized will be of great importance in forecasting the fruits of reforms to be highlighted at the session, market observers said.

There are "some tough nuts to crack, such as land reform and the household registration system overhaul," Yao noted, and although the government may recognize them as areas in need of reform, it is unlikely that any "fundamental solutions will be proposed." 

As for the implications of the imminent session for short-term economic growth, economists downplayed the possibilities of further upward revisions to GDP forecasts.

"The increased confidence in the longer-term growth path will be factored into rethinking the economy's growth prospects, but it is unlikely to be translated into short-term GDP growth stimulus," said Lian Ping of Bank of Communications, emphasizing that it may take three to five years to see significant progress.