China's GDP grew by 7.8 percent year-on-year during the third quarter, official data show. Although this figure is quite high compared to preceding quarters, we believe that recent signals point to a slowdown in growth for the fourth quarter. This trend toward deceleration is likely to extend into the coming year as well.

The sluggish pace of credit expansion from May to August will have a negative impact on economic growth in the current quarter. We believe the space for credit growth will be limited throughout the remainder of this year. In that case, infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter is likely to decline relative to the same period last year.

Additionally, the recent partial closure of the US government and the ongoing weakness within the global economy may restrain export growth.

We predict fourth quarter GDP growth to settle at 7.6 percent. Growth in 2014 will largely hinge on the pace of global economic recovery, domestic credit availability and real estate policies.

The author is Wang Tao, an economist at UBS AG.