Editor's Note:

While other major powers have so far prevented the occurrence of large-scale terrorist attacks in 2013, China is now increasingly becoming a prime target of terrorist violence. Aside from several deadly attacks launched against civilians in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, the car crash incident in Tiananmen Square on October 28 has been dubbed "China's 9/11 attacks." Will violent terrorist attacks continue to rise in China in the years to come? How should China enhance security? The Global Times invited several scholars to share their views.

Fan Shouzheng
Director of the policing strategy and tactics division, People's Public Security University of China

Fan Shouzheng

Terrorist threats from around the world reached a peak in 2010, among which the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) was among the most provocative. The trend was curbed to a certain degree after Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011, but remains active. However, various terrorist attacks kept flaring up in 2013 across the world and especially in China. The country has been confronting rising terrorist violence from ETIM that is attempting to separate Xinjiang from China.

This year we have seen several premeditated attacks in Xinjiang and ETIM claimed responsibility for the October Tiananmen car crash in Beijing, making violent terrorism a severe problem hindering China's peaceful development.

China has been countering terrorism in a calm and rational manner by establishing and improving a wide spectrum of security management mechanisms coupled with effective education, legislation and social supervision. Therefore, we should refrain from exaggerating terrorist threats but focus on carrying out comprehensive and targeted countermeasures to prevent similar incidents.

The Tiananmen car crash may serve as a reminder that we must keep a close watch on extreme actions by ETIM, because it reflected three new trends regarding terrorist attacks within China. First, terrorist violence has been spreading from border regions to urban areas. Also, ETIM members have adopted similar strategies to those used by international terrorist groups. Moreover, disgruntled extremists have trained members within their own groups. Rustam Makhmudov
A political analyst

Rustam Makhmudov

Over the past few years, the Islamist terrorist groups have significantly increased their influence in some regions of North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia as a result of several conceptual errors made by Western countries, especially the US.

First of all, Washington and its partners have underestimated the Arab Spring. They interpreted this trend as a pure democratic movement against authoritarianism in some Arab countries. But they didn't see, or didn't want to see, the radical Islamists, lurking under the "Arab freedom" flag who were highly consolidated and effectively coordinated.

The attack in Tiananmen Square, carried out by ETIM, can be interpreted as a signal from Islamic radicals to China that this country may become an aim of their future expansion.

There is no doubt ETIM currently doesn't have enough resources to become a real threat to stability in China. However, the situation is changing.

Zhang Yuan
Associate Research Fellow of the Institute of Political Science, East China University of Political Science and Law

Zhang Yuan

ETIM is considered an Al Qaeda-related terrorist organization. However, as only limited information about the organization is known, some misinterpretations have arisen.

Ethnic and religious factors are indeed entangled in ETIM's activities. But in essence they are violent terrorist activities targeting civilians. ETIM has some religious background, but it aims at seeking independence and the isolation of Xinjiang from China through extreme means. It won't gain assistance from the mainstream Islamic world since ETIM is not purely a religious group.

Meanwhile, enthusiasm for trans-national anti-terrorism cooperation has dwindled after peaking following the 9/11 attacks.

Most believe Al Qaeda was crippled after the death of Osama bin Laden, which makes large-scale devastating international terrorist attacks impossible. Therefore, the crackdown on terrorism has been shifted to the national level. But it's noticeable that many countries in Asia face terrorism caused by religious extremism and fundamentalism.

In the future, regional anti-terrorism cooperation due to geopolitical concerns will become more common.

Ahmed A. S. Hashim
Associate Professor of the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University

Ahmed A.S. Hashim

ETIM is still at the embryonic stage in its military evolution. It is reported that it has some connections with Al Qaeda, but that it does not receive much assistance.

Where ETIM members go for field training and fighting to gain experience should be monitored. Those members who come back with skills are the dangerous ones who must be apprehended before they disseminate their skills to other members.

ETIM's future targets, I assess, will be economic infrastructure in Xinjiang and probably less high-profile targets than locations in Beijing or Shanghai. But I think as they evolve they will try to hit the east as well.

The evil thing about terrorism is that it needs significant death and destruction for it to bring a paradigm shift: the 9/11 attacks, the 7/7 London bombings, the Mumbai attacks.

Terrorism is not waning, it is changing, and it is not being eradicated, but managed like a chronic disease. If the patient applies the necessary medicines and treatment, he can be saved.

Douglas H. Paal
Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Douglas H.Paal

I think China's central government needs to adjust its policy in Tibet and Xinjiang, and grant them more autonomy in a real sense. That is more important than just focusing on economic benefits. In fact, focusing on economic benefits, which the people genuinely welcome, can sometimes reinforce the resentment among minority people in these regions, who feel they do not receive dignity from the government.

China needs to be confident in its ethnic minority policies. Currently there is a sense of distrust in its policies, for instance, the frequent road checks of traveling local residents - be they the Han, Tibetans or Uyghurs.

Yang Shu
Director of the Institute for Central Asian Studies at Lanzhou University

Yang Shu

ETIM was founded in 1993 and Hasan Mahsum used to be a prominent leader. Since he was shot dead in Pakistan in 2003, there hasn't been any influential figure to emerge from ETIM, yet it still carries out underworld activities, mainly in Central Asia, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Due to its nature, it is very difficult to know how it operates, such as how much equipment it has acquired or how many staff it has.

ETIM claimed itself to be behind the October Tiananmen terrorist attack. The key issue is not which group committed the terrorist act but that a group successfully carried it out.

There is another possibility, that it didn't commit it and only tried to promote itself by making use of the chance.

Xie Guiping
Associate Professor with the Research Center of Non-traditional Security and Frontier National Development, Tarim University in Xinjiang

Xie Guiping

The resurgent terrorist violence in China calls for more cogent and coordinated measures to crack down on ETIM.

Beijing should continue to address contradictions in Xinjiang and promote social equality and justice in the long term.

The government should also recognize that counterterrorism will not succeed without the participation of the general public and especially Xinjiang's local residents.

We need to endow enlightened and literate minorities with more right to speak, because they are able to exert huge influence upon local masses and may prevent them from blindly following ETIM extremism.