Abe government might be restrained by international, domestic pressure

By Li Suhua Source:Global Times Published: 2014-1-5 22:43:01

Rightist Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, recently paid a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine that honors Class-A convicted war criminals from WWII. He has provoked international justice and challenged the bottom line of Japan's relationship with neighboring countries.

Abe's arbitrary and obdurate act could be attributed to several reasons as follows.

First, the right-wing forces in Japan and in particular within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have taken an upsurge in recent years. Former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi showed support for Abe's Yasukuni pilgrimage, claiming that Sino-Japanese relations did not turn better even after 2006 when Japanese government heads refrained from paying respect to the shrine. Some top LDP officials like Koizumi have never reflected on Japan's brutal war of aggression, and they have also been going all out to distort facts on the causes for worsening Sino-Japanese ties.

The decision by former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda to officially "nationalize" the Diaoyu Islands in 2012 constituted an irreversible catalyst to exacerbate the already-strained bilateral ties.

What's worse, by infringing upon China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, Abe claims that the uninhabited islets are an inherent part of the territory of Japan, clinging further to the wrong path.

In addition, Abenomics saw some positive effects only during the first two quarters after being adopted, but encountered many difficulties in driving the sluggish economy in the latter half of the past year.

The aggressive monetary easing policy has pushed up the excessively high deficit of the Japanese government. More than half of the Japanese public are pessimistic about the overall economic landscape this year. Plus, many people hold negative views toward the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement the Abe government has unswervingly been advancing.

The LDP has actually put itself at risk of losing power if Tokyo's economy still remains depressed. Abe might have attempted to maintain the current approval rating by shifting public attention from the financial quandary by visiting the notorious shrine to mark the first anniversary of taking office.

During the past year, Abe has implemented ultra-loose monetary policy,  fiscal stimulus plan and economic growth strategy, which have in fact received little recognition among the Japanese public. Beijing and Seoul pointed out that Abenomics is a beggar-thy-neighbor policy that impairs the interests of other countries. Germany's Federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble criticized the nationalist leader's economic development package. And the International Monetary Fund also noted that Abenomics is highly risky with a murky future full of uncertainties.

On the military and security front, Abe's cabinet has increased its defense budget two years in a row in 2013 and 2014.

The government has adopted a national security strategy, new defense program guidelines and a five-year defense buildup plan, all of which have been heavily condemned by the international community.

Even Washington expressed regret at his shrine visit, claiming that Abe's behavior has affected the US-Japan alliance. Consequently it is obvious that its close ally is also concerned with its ultra-rightist trend.

Given the current scenario, Tokyo may likely go even further down the right-wing road by strengthening its military buildup, posing a perilous threat to the peace and stability of Northeast Asia.

Nonetheless there are odds that Abe might practice restraint a little bit in the future under the pressure of peace-loving forces within Japan and the international community, or he will be compelled to step down owing to an ineffective economic package and a warlike mentality.

Abe's war shrine visit has precipitated Tokyo's ties with Beijing and Seoul entering a deep freeze. If Abe doesn't restrain himself in the future, Japan will be at jeopardy of being isolated by the rest of the world where peace and development represent the dominant factors.

The author is an assistant research fellow with the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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