Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

Like an underpowered, overburdened locomotive trying to crawl its way uphill, the UK government is attempting to convince a skeptical public about the benefits of its costly and controversial plan to build a new high-speed rail line linking London with Birmingham and the north of the country.

The debate was further stoked during Prime Minister David Cameron's visit to China in December, when it was announced that the Chinese government is interested in investing in the scheme, known as High Speed 2 (HS2), which, if current estimates are to be believed, will cost over 42 billion pounds ($69.7 billion).

This led to concern that allowing China to invest in such a large piece of UK infrastructure would harm the national interest. This is despite the means and scope of any Chinese involvement being as unclear as the actual plan itself, and the fact that investment by China and other nations in equally vital sectors such as energy is already happening. 

Chinese enthusiasm is probably down to its eagerness to export their high-speed rail technology and expertise. China's high-speed rail network has grown from nothing in 2007 to around 6,000 kilometers today. This is some 12 times the length of the proposed project in the UK, which under current plans is not due to start construction until 2017, and will take a further nine years to complete, barring delays. Though by Chinese standards this is a glacial pace, getting in on the ground floor of the UK's high-speed rail network would put China in a good position to be involved in any further expansion of the network that may actually take place.

Critics are wary, pointing out problems in the deployment of the Chinese high-speed rail network, which was done without the need to worry about voter support, and which has experienced problems in terms of safety and corruption. Then there is the general concern over who shoulders the risk involved. If the disastrous privatization of the wider UK rail network is anything to go by, it is the taxpayer who will foot the bill, making investment a no-brainer for private and overseas concerns, who can be confident they won't be left out of pocket.

However, Chinese involvement is a relatively minor concern when compared to the way the UK government is pushing ahead with HS2 despite widespread criticism over the costs involved, the route and the very basis of the reasoning behind the project. Indeed, any Chinese backers will have to prepare to be patient.

The UK government's case for the high-speed line rests upon the claim that it will boost trade and free up capacity on other parts of the rail and road network. It will reduce current rail travel times between London and the UK's second-largest city, Birmingham, from 1 hour 21 minutes to 49 minutes, with trains traveling at around 400 kilometers per hour.

However, those against say the reasoning behind the plan is faulty, that the efficiency numbers are based on shaky estimates and that cheaper and quicker alternatives such as improving the country's existing, and ailing, train network will be far more effective and less costly. Experts have also challenged claims that it will improve the economies outside of London, instead saying it is likely to suck even more wealth into the capital.

The government did its case no favors when it blocked requests under the Freedom of Information Act to release an in-depth government report on the feasibility of the project made in 2011. The report, reportedly highly critical of the scheme, is now effectively a state secret. Meanwhile, another report by the National Audit Office, the UK's public auditor, said the economic benefits of HS2 are unclear, and warned of a shortfall in funding of over 3.3 billion pounds.

The government has also made some highly questionable appointments, including naming the man who oversaw a calamitous attempt at upgrading the National Health Service's IT system as a director of HS2.

At the same time, as is traditional among large government projects in the UK, consultants are already lining their pockets, with some estimates putting spending on consultants at 500 million pounds by 2016.

Despite all this, the UK government is still pushing ahead.

For outside investors, including the Chinese, the foibles of the UK system - which usually consists of much hand-wringing, followed by botched compromises that lead to overspending, delays and sub-standard systems - could make HS2 a far less smooth and efficient ride than they might be expecting.

The author is a freelance writer. adam.skuse@yahoo.com

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