Kyrgyz president plays risky game with rail bargains

By Rustam Makhmudov Source:Global Times Published: 2014-2-24 19:23:01

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT



Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev recently radically changed his viewpoint on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway construction project. At a recent press conference, he said that this project doesn't meet the national interests of Kyrgyzstan.

For many observers, the Kyrgyz president's statement was a surprise. But Atambayev, by using the strategically important railroad, is striving to achieve several objectives in his foreign and domestic policy.

Atambayev's recent foreign policy maneuvers show that he is gradually returning to the model that was used by former Kyrgyz presidents Askar Akayev and Kurmanbek Bakiyev. The essence of this is to use geopolitical competition around Kyrgyzstan among the leading external forces to maximize its economic, financial and political dividends.

Previously, one bargaining chip was a US military base in Manas airport, which was considered by Moscow a threat to its geopolitical influence in Central Asia. In turn, the US wanted to keep this base, which was a key element of its strategy in the internal regions of Eurasia, including Afghanistan.

Seeing Russia's fears and US geopolitical ambitions, Bishkek played poker, constantly raising the stakes.

It is quite likely that Atambayev intends to create a few more long-term objects for bargaining and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project is one of them. He barely hides this.

At the press conference, he said that he had suggested Chinese President Xi Jinping a new version of the railway. In particular, he offered to change its route to connect to the northern and southern parts of Kyrgyzstan. No doubt this will significantly increase the cost of the project, especially for China, because Kyrgyzstan cannot fund such expensive projects itself.

At the same time Atambayev is trying to utilize the fears of Moscow, which doesn't want to see the further expansion of Chinese influence in the Central Asian transport sector. According to the Russian news portal Regnum, Atambayev has said that on the issue of the new railway Kyrgyzstan will have to choose between Russia and China.

The Kyrgyz president has also hinted at favoring the Russia-Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan railroad project. Atambayev offered this project himself at the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, held in Bishkek in May 2013. Moscow supported his idea.

However, now the Kyrgyz president is trying to use this project to exert pressure on Russia, and his actions theoretically may provoke geopolitical tension between Beijing and Moscow. 

By pressing on Russia, Atambayev may want to get concessions on joining the Customs Union - the economic integration project under the aegis of Moscow.

Earlier Bishkek rejected the roadmap for joining the Customs Union that was offered by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. The members of the Customs Union insist on stopping re-export flows through the territory of Kyrgyzstan.

However, Kyrgyz officials fear that these measures could trigger social instability. According to Kyrgyz estimates, almost 80 percent of local businesses resell goods produced in third countries. The average re-export volume reaches $10 billion per annum.

Thus, attempting to provoke a geopolitical competition in a railway sector for deriving economic benefits involves the president in a very complicated game. Similar strategies from former leaders Askar Akayev and Kurmanbek Bakiyev led to their political collapse.

Having changed his position on the railroad project, Atambayev also seeks to ease pressure from the domestic opposition, which accuses authorities of intention to sell the national resources in exchange for foreign loans.

Now Atambayev wants to demonstrate that he has taken into account the critique of his opponents and is considering the national future of the country.

Nevertheless, this step may have a short-term effect. If Atambayev doesn't improve fundamentally the internal economic situation in the foreseeable future, he will face a new wave of instability.

If  Atambayev really wants to restore the national economy, he will have to attract multi-billion dollar investments from other countries to revitalize the Kyrgyz economy, but doing this on a foundation of risky geopolitical games is hardly possible. The big money likes stability and predictability, not chaos and change.

The author is a political analyst based in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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