US no quick fix for EU-Russia gas crisis

By George N. Tzogopoulos Source:Global Times Published: 2014-4-15 20:48:02

Europe's ambition to reduce its dependence on Russian energy resources is a fundamental aspect of its foreign and economic policy. The current Ukrainian crisis highlights the need to diversify its sources, because the deterioration of its relations with Russia may affect gas imports.

Ukraine's Petro Poroschenko, for instance, has encouraged Germany to boycott Russian gas in order to send a clear signal to Moscow to stop its alleged aggression.

Although members of the EU remain divided on the severity of sanctions against Russia, they will have to adjust their energy policies sooner or later.

Within this context, a lively debate exists on whether the ongoing Ukrainian crisis could strengthen the US oil and gas market.

In particular, this crisis raises the question whether the US industry constitutes a promising alternative option for Europe to cover its energy needs.

European leaders encourage the US to step up gas exports to the Old Continent. For his part, US President Barack Obama does not exclude such a development but considers the implementation of a free trade zone between Washington and Brussels as a necessary prerequisite.

For the time being, US law allows the export of liquefied natural gas to only a few countries such as Canada and Mexico. In addition, according to current legal guidelines, permissions can only be granted by the Department of Energy.

The possibility for a review of this restrictive policy has already started to be discussed in the US, taking the shale gas revolution into account.

Those who advocate more flexibility in US gas exports claim that Washington will benefit by using energy as a diplomatic means to serve its geopolitical interests.

In their view, Russia will suffer a psychological blow through fear of losing its monopoly, and may also face even more serious consequences in the long-term finding it hard to compete with Washington's energy boom and receiving significantly lower revenues from European states.

Existing obstacles, however, are an important check on wishful thinking. Specifically, the cost of production and shipping from the US to Europe gas are high for technical reasons.

Furthermore, it will certainly take time until the appropriate infrastructure will be ready in the US. "Sabine Pass" in Louisiana, the first US export terminal, for example, is expected to begin its operation in late 2015.

Meanwhile, there is skepticism that large quantities of shipping might significantly increase prices of gas in the US. And whether the US will be able to undercut Russian prices is still in question.

Although US advantages in technology are unquestionable, Washington can hardly undermine Russia by exporting gas to Europe, at least under current circumstances.

An analysis of leading gas exporters to Europe in both 2012 and 2013 shows that countries such as Russia, Norway, Algeria and Qatar have the lion's share. Most of them naturally benefit from the existence of pipelines, which is not the case with the US which can only export liquefied natural gas by sea.

This balance will maybe change in the future, if the US Department of Energy accepts all applications to export gas and is able to finance the construction of most important projects allowing the liquefaction process. But is such a scenario realistic?

A fair and careful anticipation of US gas industry advantages and profits in coming years cannot but have some limits. Future gains will arguably pave the way for Washington to challenge Moscow as the dominant energy supplier and solve Europe's problem to diversify its sources.

The development of shale gas in Europe might be a possibility. There are countries such as the UK and Poland who already push toward this direction.

It is no coincidence that the European Parliament recently voted for tougher rules on exposing the environmental impact of oil and conventional gas exploration, even though they did so without making any direct reference to shale gas.

Brussels will need to take difficult decisions shortly instead of expecting the ideal solution from Washington.

The author is a research fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

Posted in: Viewpoint

blog comments powered by Disqus