Megacities can no longer rely on economic growth: McKinsey

By Wang Xinyuan Source:Global Times Published: 2014-4-16 23:08:04

Many megacities in China can no longer rely on economic growth to improve local sustainability, and they are facing challenges in finding new models, McKinsey & Company said at a press conference on Wednesday.

The sustainability of China's cities is positively correlated with economic strength, population size and density, foreign direct investment (FDI) and migration, according to McKinsey's latest report on the China Urban Sustainability Index released on Wednesday.

However, the study of 185 sample Chinese cities shows that many have surpassed the turning points at which a city's sustainability potentially slows down or stalls, the report said.

"This becomes especially evident when a city with a population size of more than 4.5 million, population density of more than 8,000 people per square kilometer, FDI of more than $3 billion, or with a migrant population of over 30 percent," it said.

Most developed Chinese cities have passed through such sustainability turning points including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

A blind pursuit of economic growth, population expansion, and an increase in population density will prevent sustainable progress.

Policymakers in these cities must learn from leading international cities by seeking out new growth models, including the construction of low-carbon cities, the report said.

Pollution is correlated to the economic growth, but environment is the key to attract further investors, "it is not that the faster growing a city is, the better it would be," said Jonathan Woetzel, a director of McKinsey, at the conference.

In McKinsey's latest ranking, Zhuhai in South China's Guangdong Province tops China's cities in sustainabi­lity, followed by Shenzhen and Hangzhou in overall scores of society, environmental cleanliness, economy and resources.

First-tier cities Guangzhou and Beijing ranked No.5 and No.8 respectively.

Development of large cities with over 4.5 million people is driven by massive investment and credit growth, Cao Jianhai, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the conference.

The lack of consistency in environmental protection measures may impede the integration of megacity circles, said Li Shantong, a research fellow at the Development Research Center of the State Council.

For instance, pollution prevention standards differ in Beijing and Tangshan, a smaller city in North China's Hebei Province which surrounds Beijing, which makes it harder to make smog plagued Beijing cleaner, she said.

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