Patience required for Hong Kong’s incremental approach to reform

By Yuan Yue Source:Global Times Published: 2014-9-14 17:43:01

As a businessman and specialist focusing on public opinion polls, I was asked by my friends several times about my view on the public debate about Hong Kong's political reform.

In my opinion, Hong Kong's universal suffrage is a constitutional arrangement beyond the Basic Law, an incremental plan offered by the central government which is pertinent to Hong Kong's system under the "one country" principle.

After the 2017 Chief Executive election, it can be anticipated that the next election will embrace more progress.

This constitutional arrangement is not included in the Sino-British Joint Declaration on the question of Hong Kong. It shows that the central leadership has set up an incremental framework to guide Hong Kong's political reform. Comprehensive cooperation under such a framework is the key to advancing Hong Kong's political reform.

An incremental reform can win support from the society. During the British occupation, the local authorities didn't implement any major democratic mechanisms in terms of elections, resulting in Hong Kong society lacking social mobilization.

In Hong Kong, pro-establishment forces put their emphasis on community services and community mobilization, while the pro-democracy camp put more effort in political mobilization in the form of protests to challenge Hong Kong's basic institutions.

This is the reason why in the recent Legislative Council elections, pro-democracy candidates who called for a radical democracy did not have competitive advantages.

Under the current framework of incremental political reform, the pro-democracy camp does not have sufficient political resources and capabilities to gain the upper hand in politics.

Pro-democracy forces are attempting to accumulate their energy by making radical moves in confrontational issues so that they can break through the political bottleneck. This is the root cause that drives the pro-democracy camp to demand a more open model for universal suffrage.

As for the pro-establishment group and the Chinese mainland, such a confrontation has increased the political tensions within Hong Kong society and between Hong Kong and the mainland.

They will face a dilemma, because in this case there is no way to fulfill their original political expectations, be they remaining firm or seeking a compromise. But the pro-democracy camp won't lose much ground, even if they fail.

In the end, we will see a standoff between the pro-democracy group and the central government, in which the former won't give up occupying Central, their trump card, and the latter won't abandon the incremental political reform policy.

As for the ordinary people in Hong Kong, stability and a progressive democratic transformation are what they desire the most.

As for the Hong Kong political parties, they must realize that winning the recognition of the people is the key to gaining more political weight in this incremental democratic process.

Meanwhile, the central government and Hong Kong authorities must be more cautious and understand the concerns, expectations and requirements of most Hongkongers.

The prospect of an incremental democratic reform will not be rocked by a temporary political standoff.

Under the framework, as long as the pro-democracy camp can keep a rational manner of dialogue and remain committed to serving the Hong Kong people, they can still play an important role in improving Hong Kong's democratic system.

The author is president of Horizon Research Consultancy Group. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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