Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Rarely are referenda as important as the one which will take place in Scotland on Thursday. Residents of Scotland, whatever their nationality, will have the unique opportunity as well as the critical responsibility to vote either for unity with the UK or for independence.

Recent polls are very close, and both sides are making their last ditch efforts to attract undecided voters who will decide the result of the referendum at last.

First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond constantly insists on his firm position for independence, promising a better future for Scottish citizens.

On the other hand, mainstream British politicians, including Prime Minister David Cameron, advocate for unity by warning Scottish citizens on dramatic consequences if they vote "yes." They also promise more freedoms and privileges for Scotland in coming years should it remain part of the UK.

A "no" vote in the referendum of Thursday will mark the continuation of the unity status quo in the UK being in effect since the beginning of the 18th century.

It will also constitute a serious blow for Salmond, perhaps putting an end to his ambition to create an independent Scotland.

It is expected that he will remain adamant on the need of Scottish independence only if the difference between "yes" and "no" is remarkably tight. In such a case, he might be able to ask for a new referendum in the future as Scottish society will be deeply divided.

Scenarios, however, will be much more complex should citizens in Scotland clearly show their preference for independence. Such a development will put the country and its relations with the UK into unchartered waters.

Various issues create natural skepticism and concern. To start with, Scotland could in the short term arguably become richer from North Sea oil revenues, but might face serious economic problems.

Additionally, it remains to be seen whether the removal of English nuclear submarines from Faslane naval base would be feasible.

Apart from the reaction of London, NATO commitments are strong and can hardly be ignored by an independent Scotland which would be struggling to safeguard a good international position.

What currency the new country will use is also a theme of serious disagreement between Edinburgh and London. Scottish banks and UK companies have already started to predict high costs, job losses, and borrowing difficulties.

The European future of an independent Scotland may lead to tough negotiations. The good scenario for Edinburgh would be to remain a member of the EU by preserving its current affiliation as part of the UK and subsequently arranging technical details regarding its independence.

Nevertheless, the bad scenario would be to be considered by Brussels as a new state, which has to pass through a normal stage of submitting a complete application to become a full member. Such a process would be time-consuming, and its result would not necessarily be positive for Scotland.

Many ordinary Scottish citizens are asking simple questions that have not yet found specific answers about trade, immigration and pensions the day after.

They also ask about new conditions for small companies that would have to adjust themselves to a new system of different rules in Scotland and the remaining part of the UK.

Although Scotland would be officially independent from 2016 onward in the event of a "yes" vote, public life would be disrupted long before due to the lack of a similar precedent.

On Thursday, people living in Scotland will vote to decide the fate of their country. Their decision will also have a significant impact on world politics.

Apart from Scotland, there are similar cases in Europe where independence claims are gaining ground. Catalonia in Spain is the main example, while fears about the future of Wales in the UK will also increase.

A "yes" vote could possibly open the bag of Aeolus for other independent movements in the Old Continent, while a "no" vote might function as a hindrance for existing movements.

The author is a research fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn