Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

The Thai military staged a coup on May 22, overthrowing the elected government of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra. After months of relentless anti-government protests, the military exploited the crisis to intervene in politics, supposedly with a mission to eliminate corruption and embark on political reforms.

At a deeper level however, the coup reflected the mounting anxiety of the traditional elites, of which the military is a part, regarding the imminent royal succession.

King Bhumibol Adulyadej, now 86, has been on the throne for 68 years. Sitting on top of the political structure, Bhumibol had dominated Thai politics despite his confined role under the constitution. But now he is frail. His wife, Queen Sirikit, is also suffering from the aftereffects of a stroke. The stability of the monarchy has been thrown into jeopardy.

Protecting the power of the monarchy has long been as the key agenda of the traditional elites. In the 2006 coup, they ousted then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, perceiving him as a menace to their political and social status, and economic wealth.

Thaksin's effective populist policies were successful in winning poor constituencies in Thailand. His overwhelming success seriously threatened to shift Thailand's political landscape.

In 2011, Yingluck, Thaksin's sister, won a landslide election; another humiliating slap in the face of the traditional elites. But this time, the stakes were more precarious given the condition of the king. To topple her, a campaign accusing Yingluck's government of corruption was launched. The Thai Constitutional Court finally ordered her to step down. These actions led to the latest putsch.

Clearly, the coup was staged in order to manage the looming royal succession. "It's like a musical chairs game. When the music stops - when the king dies - whoever has power gets to organize the next steps," said Ernest Bower, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Removing Thaksin and his proxies is still a priority. More importantly, the traditional elites wanted the next monarch to be someone of their political benefits.

There is an open secret that key members of the palace circle have expressed their disapproval of the only heir apparent, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn.

A series of discussions among General Prem Tinsulanond, former prime minister and the current President of the Privy Council, together with former prime minister Anand Panyarachun, and Privy Councilor ACM Siddhi Savetsila, as well as US Ambassador Eric John, revealed that these palace representatives saw Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn as an unfit candidate.

With his complicated personal life and lack of moral authority, Vajiralongkorn seems to represent the less favorable choice for the palace. Yet, what the traditional elites fear the most could be the possibility that Vajiralongkorn has reportedly forged a kind of political alliance with Thaksin. This could prove to be the underlining cause of the recent coup.

The military could seek to hold onto power until after the royal succession. It is likely that some measures would be installed to prevent the political opponents to return to politics via elections.

The date for the next election has not been set. Thailand's new Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has a reputation as a staunch monarchist. He has warned that violations of the lèse-majesté law, a broad rule that bans anything deemed "offensive" to the monarchy, will be heard in military, rather than criminal, courts.

One may never know the real relationship between Vajiralongkorn and Thaksin. Yet, the unknown alone has already stirred up a sense of anxiety within the palace.

It is premature to assume that the palace might already have a candidate in mind as the next monarch. According to the succession law, it is undeniable that Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn will succeed the throne, although there have been talks about a supposedly more suitable candidate - Princess Sirindhorn.

From this view, the Thai crisis will not go away for some time, surely not before the royal transition.

Meanwhile, democratic institutions have been weakened as a result of the traditional elites denying the political and societal changes in the past decades.

So far, the Thai military has shown its uncompromising attitude toward maintaining the political position of the palace. But this could end up in a new round of violence, as the Thais fight to set themselves free from the old elitist politics.

The author is associate professor at Kyoto University's Center for Southeast Asian Studies. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn