Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

The 10 percent margin for "no" in the recent Scottish referendum might seem decisive. But the 45 percent secured by the "yes" side represented a significant leap forward from previous polling for independence.

It was older voters who clinched the referendum, while "yes" won a narrow margin among the young and early middle-aged. Some Nationalist supporters are therefore hoping that as the political demography shifts, so will the odds of winning a hypothetical future vote.

In the long run, though, the political odds run against independence, for several reasons. The first and crudest is oil. Scotland's independent financial future depends on North Sea oil revenue, which is already past peak and will continue to decline over the next three decades.

More than anything else, the Scottish independence movement was initially driven by the belief that "It's Scotland's oil," as the 1970s Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) slogan ran.

The discovery of North Sea oil pushed the SNP from a fringe group to over 20 percent of the vote in the 1970s.  This dependence on fossil fuels might seem incongruous, given the green and left-wing tinge of the modern movement. But it's very real. Without the oil, Scottish dreams of being a new Norway are even more implausible.

The UK establishment also let the current referendum be carried out on the terms most favorable to the Nationalist cause. They did so out of a cocky overconfidence that a "no," by a wide margin, was inevitable. They won't make the same mistake twice. The bizarre decision to let 16 and 17-year-olds vote in the referendum helped "yes," as over 70 percent of them voted for independence.

But critically, 18 to 24-year-olds plumped slightly for "no," as reality overcame teenage idealism. That's a warning to the Unionist side in the future; don't let children vote. The current referendum also excluded Scottish-born citizens residing elsewhere in the UK.

Unsurprisingly, they're far more pro-Union than those still residing in Scotland. Having suffered a close call this time, the Union side is likely to fight harder and nastier from the very start to secure terms for any future referendum. And while the "Better Together" advertising campaign was a patronizing shambles, future Union PR will be slicker and smarter.

Given the emotional power of the word "yes," canny negotiation might even see the terms of the question reframed.

"Devo Max," shorthand for massive new powers for Scotland within the Union, was not a choice on the ballot, even though it was the preferred choice for many "yes" voters.

Scotland's prospects also depended on the EU, especially the eurozone. Nationalists figured that they could secure protection from the EU, and use the euro as a currency. But the fate of small countries without control over their own money supply, such as Greece, has proven far nastier than euro advocates predicted. And the EU's foundations look increasingly shaky.

But all this depends on two things. First, the UK has to undergo a tough discussion about the future of regional government, from Scotland to Wales to the north.

A London-centric government, and one that has become critically dependent on a narrow and socially harmful finance sector, needs to be shaken up.

The Scottish vote may provide the impetus for this, or it may drive a movement of resentment and bitterness in England, further tearing the two sides apart.

It also depends on the Liberal Democrat and Labour parties recovering their sense of identity. The critical moment in UK politics in the last five years was the decision of the Liberal Democrats to go into alliance with the Conservative Party, and then, from 2010 to 2012, their pathetic failure to halt the Conservative assault on public services and their feathering of their cronies' nests.

It was the kowtowing of Liberal leader Nick Clegg to the idols of "austerity" that convinced many Scots that any hope of change was dead in London.

Labour has been little better, parroting Tory ideas while failing to articulate a left-wing vision. And many "yes" voters have turned further against all three parties as a result of the vote, seeing them as essentially identical.

Labour needs to reassert themselves as a genuine left-wing alternative to give Scots the hope that their political views have a future within a united UK. Otherwise, regardless of economic realities, the idea of ditching the lot and starting over will keep its appeal.

The author is an editor with the Global Times. jamespalmer@globaltimes.com.cn