Korean ties mired in tension

By Li Aixin Source:Global Times Published: 2014-10-21 0:53:01

Peninsula talks proceed amid exchanges of fire, key visits


South Korean activists release balloons carrying anti-North Korea leaflets at a park near the inter-Korea border in Paju, north of Seoul, on October 10, which was followed by an exchange of gunfire across the border area. Photo: AFP



The two Koreas once again appear embroiled in a kind of "truce or dare" standoff, after recent exchanges of fire across the tense border area followed by rare albeit fruitless military discussions.

However, the two sides have agreed to hold a second round of high-level inter-Korea talks in the coming weeks, after a surprise visit of three high-ranking officials from North Korea, who went to Incheon to formally attend the closing ceremony of the Asian Games.

The recent ups and downs on the Korean Peninsula have cast a cloud over whether the coming high-level talks hold any promise.

But along with mounting speculation, experts say that neither a handshake nor gunfire on the border will be anything more than a mere signal in terms of developments on the peninsula.

Hopes of a thaw

It seemed the situation has shown positive signal of change when the senior delegates of the North, including Hwang Pyong-so, who is believed to be the second most powerful man in North Korea, appeared in the South earlier this month.

"Like his father, Kim Jong-un is keen on sports diplomacy, and the Asian Games represented a chance for a diplomatic breakthrough in chilled relations by dispatching the high-level delegation to South Korea," Wang Sheng, a professor of Korean Studies at Jilin University, told the Global Times.

He added that North Korea, which is already under enormous pressure in terms of sanctions, a lack of energy resources and drought, was sending a message that it wanted to ease relations with the South.

The Asian Games therefore were a perfect opportunity and came at the right time, because North Korea was running out of options.

"They [North Korea] were in this situation after contacting the US in vain, and after having little progress with Japan, and just a little economic help from Russia," said Kim Heung-kyu, director of the China Policy Institute at Seoul-based Ajou University.

Seoul soon made its stance clear. South Korean President Park Geun-hye said that the two Koreas should persist with dialogue in order to ease the tension and maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula on October 13, according to the Yonhap News Agency.

And this was reaffirmed when presidential security chief secretary of the South said on Sunday that the two Koreas will be able to hold another round of high-level talks as scheduled.

Tough requests

However, given the demands from both sides, the two nations might need to show more sincerity and willingness to make concessions before there is any real improvement in the tense bilateral relations. 

Analysts say that there are certain issues that are likely to come up in the talks. Key topics include the next round reunion of family members separated by the Korean War (1950-53), and the possibility to make the reunion a regular event. In addition, there are also the issues of resuming tourism to Mount Keumgang, and the "May 24" measures, which relate to responsibility for the sinking of the South Korean submarine the Cheonan in 2010, which killed 46.

"Those items are difficult to resolve," said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based senior analyst and deputy director of the Northeast Asia project at the International Crisis Group.

"So compromising [on the May 24th issue] is very difficult," said Pinkston, "They [North Korea] have to find some language or some ambiguous way of expressing some regret, some remorse to the families while ignoring the responsibility issue. Even doing that is going to be difficult," he added.

The largest issue, however, remains the North's nuclear projects.

The South Korean government is willing to hold dialogue at any level, said Kim Heung-kyu, noting that the precondition is a "serious attitude from North Korea toward denuclearization, at least a declaration it will halt progress on nuclear weapons," otherwise, the South should not provide a free lunch, he added.

But Pyongyang walked away from the negotiating table during the last Six-Party Talks on denuclearizing North Korea in late 2008.

Volatile situation

"Many people focus on the process, on the talks, this is correct, but the talks are not the full picture. You can meet but still fail to reach an agreement," said Pinkston, "Their thinking and ideas are so far apart, this is the unfortunate part."

Cross-border fire and mutual threats are normal after the Korean Peninsula was divided into two nations.

In addition, nuclear tests and the joint Washington-Seoul annual military exercises are increasing tensions.

"We have to realize that Pyongyang's nuclear program and the US-South Korea military drills are fueling each other," Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Party School of the Central Committee of the CPC, told the Global Times, noting that North Korea is developing nuclear weapons because it feels threatened by the US.

As a consequence, South Korea wanted this joint military exercise to respond to the nuclear threat from the north, he said.

Apart from that, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has a significant effect on the US rebalancing to Asia strategy, Zhang said, saying that they have reasons to maintain the tension.

When asked what China would do on the Korean Peninsula, Zhang said nothing major could be done before China decided the priority there - pushing ahead with denuclearization or maintaining stability.

If China helps North Korea to maintain stability, which would involve economic and political support, this will to some extent help them develop nuclear technology. But if pressure is put on the country to counteract its nuclear program, a volatile situation could emerge, he said.



Posted in: Asia-Pacific

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