Oil price decline unlikely to shake Putin’s power

Source:Global Times Published: 2014-10-23 0:18:01

Crude oil prices have dramatically declined by 25 percent in the last four months, plummeting from $110 per barrel to about $80 per barrel. The impacts of this black gold on geopolitics have been revealed, exposing the Russian economy to the highest risks of recent years.

Some international analysts speculate that since half of Moscow's revenue depends on oil and gas, Russian President Vladimir Putin will find it hard to keep his position if prices continue to fall.

With over-dependence on energy exports, Russia's economic structure is not as sustainable as that of other major economies. The West ridicules Russia as a nuclear weapon-equipped Saudi Arabia.

It is probable that the ultra-low oil prices of the 1980s and 90s gave impetus to the disintegration of Soviet Union. Putin, according to an article in the Financial Times, faces an "existential challenge."

These analyses have clearly over-amplified the impact of one single element. As a major power, Russia has more than just oil and gas. This nation has preserved its strength in its vast land and always has the tenacity to defend itself from external pressures. Its resilience is a significant force that has changed the course of human history more than once.

Russia had considered the current scenario before it established a specific fund to fend off the risks of oil price fluctuations. Its foreign exchange reserves are over $450 billion. Moscow has full capability to deal with a temporary decline in oil prices.

Considering that gross reserves of fossil fuels are running low, but demand from emerging economies is growing, it is unlikely that the decline in oil prices will be the death of Russia.

The declining trajectory of international oil prices is good news for China, which, however, will not take illegitimate advantages from it. The Western sanctions over Russia and oil price manipulation can only add more impetus for Beijing and Moscow to join hands. The comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between China and Russia can serve as a strong shield for the latter to withstand risks.

China and Russia sealed their recent oil pipeline deal thanks to the 2008 international financial crisis, and the Ukraine crisis gave the last push for the agreement on a gas pipeline. These two projects demonstrate that China's rapid rise shapes a new strategic environment for Russia.

There are anxious voices worrying that Russia might become China's burden, which is a misinterpretation of China-Russia cooperation. China and Russia draw near to each other to make full use of their complementary advantages and grow stronger to fend off geopolitical risks. Such a relationship is an extension of the competitiveness and tenacity of both sides.



Posted in: Observer

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