US upswing won’t alter long-term trends

Source:Global Times Published: 2014-12-25 0:08:02

The US economy grew at a 5 percent clip in the third quarter of this year, the quickest pace since 2003. It has strongly boosted expectations in the US mainstream media for the country's economic prospects.

The US has led the efforts of the West's economic recovery and has served as somewhat of an inspiration for the global economy. It also sends a good signal to the Chinese economy.

The latest US economic data stands out among the severe economic difficulties still facing Europe and Japan and downward pressure for China. Some then questioned the projection that China's economy will overtake that of the US in a few years since there are uncertainties in the future.

These doubts are reasonable in some way. It can't be ruled out that US GDP will rank first in the long-term.

Although a comparison of economic strength between China and the US doesn't relate directly to the real life of both peoples, there is indeed an interest in making such comparisons in China. It is generally considered desirable that China's economic size will probably exceed that of the US.

But China still hasn't given as much attention to this possibility as the US, which often dominates the discussion. We don't believe entirely the timetable set by the Western media about when China will overtake the US.

We already have some solid understanding of the two economies.

First, the US economic advantages against China, particularly in terms of quality, will remain for a long time, since China has yet to complete its modernization.

Second, the Chinese economy will grow more rapidly than the US in the long-term.

Third, China is making proactive reforms to its economy, which may be the biggest weakness for the US. 

Fourth, the two economies will become more closely connected. China has larger room for growth while the US is more capable of innovation, but the narrowing gap in strength will be a general trend.

The US may not collapse, a bad outcome Chinese policymakers and investors do not wish to see. China's economic growth won't halt or break down. If dramatic and unfavorable changes happen to the Chinese economy, the US will also suffer heavy losses, which American investors will not like.

The US economy grew faster than projected earlier this year, which indicates that the projections were not completely reliable. The most accurate economic forecasts and planning have been in China in recent decades.

China has fine-tuned its growth expectations and is fostering its internal demand and restructuring the economy. Its rejuvenation isn't a bubble that can be easily pricked. Chinese growth will continue so that it will take its place on the list of developed nations.

The US has shown its tenacity as a massive economy. The upswing will help the US regain some confidence, and China will find it easier to cooperate with a confident US.



Posted in: Editorial

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