NATO membership becomes all the more out of reach for Ukraine

By Zhang Haoqi Source:Global Times Published: 2015-1-7 23:03:01

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT



It takes only a few minutes to make a decision of quitting the nonaligned principle, but it takes a long time to form an alliance. This is exactly what Ukraine is experiencing.

On December 23, the Ukrainian parliament revoked a four-year-long nonaligned stance preventing Ukraine from seeking NATO membership. A week later, President Petro Poroshenko signed a bill dropping the country's non-aligned status.

Such a decision did not come suddenly to Ukrainians. Poroshenko said in November that Ukraine would hold a referendum on seeking NATO membership at the end of this decade. If a referendum really takes place, it is surely to be passed. According to a survey in September, more than half of the population support NATO membership, and the figure in Kiev and western areas is over 70 percent. Even in pro-Russian eastern and southern regions, the figure stood at around 30 percent.

Ukraine has been longing to join NATO for years. NATO has always been a temptation for Ukraine, and the Ukraine crisis only adds fuel to the burning desire to join this military bloc. Ukraine's initial impetus to join NATO did not come out of security considerations. After Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons and was promised by both Russia and the West that they would protect its territorial integrity, Ukraine did not worry too much about security.

Instead, Ukraine hoped NATO membership could get it quicker access to the EU, as the experience of some Central and Eastern European countries has shown that NATO membership could act as a stepping stone. Therefore, in 1998 then president Leonid Kuchma passed an order of cooperation with NATO, and in 2002, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine made a public announcement to move for membership in NATO.

Since Ukraine made up its mind to join NATO, an entangled rivalry has emerged between Russia and Ukraine. After some Central and Eastern European countries and three Baltic countries fell into the embrace of NATO, Russia couldn't bear geopolitical losses anymore.

Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, all in Russia's backyard, will never be allowed to leave. Russia tackled Georgia through Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It dealt with Moldova through the left bank of the Dniester River. Now through Donetsk and Lugansk, it successfully grips Ukraine.

Therefore, compared with Ukraine's past intention to join NATO, its current purposes are quite different. It used to see NATO membership as a shortcut to integrate with Europe, but now it aims at seeking security from NATO given the annexation of Crimea and the chaos in the eastern regions.

But this objective is difficult to achieve. Although elites and the public in Ukraine share the same stance, whether the country can join NATO does not depend on its wish, but on NATO and Russia. After Ukraine gave up the nonaligned status, NATO and Europe have behaved calmly, indicating it is not a short-term matter. NATO has to take Russia's concerns into consideration, and Russia didn't take it seriously this time.

In fact, Ukraine, NATO and Russia are all clear that NATO membership can't be achieved right now or even in the future. The Ukrainian government just wants to show its stance to its people and the international community that the path to the West has become irreversible and its 350-year-old relationship with Russia has come to an end.

Russia has got this message. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Ukraine's application for NATO membership will turn it into "a potential military opponent for Russia." That past brothers have turned to enemies proves a tragedy for both.

The author is an associate research fellow with the Institute of Russian, Eastern European & Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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