Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

The release of former Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian on a month-long medical parole recently has grabbed headlines in recent days. In December 2008 Chen was sentenced to 20 years in prison for illegal use of a special presidential fund. While in custody, Chen put on numerous political shows. He attempted suicide many times despite close prison guard, left the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) out of his own volition and later applied for readmission. With all these ludicrous maneuvers, he attempted to elicit wide attention and win sympathy from society and the DPP.

However, Chen's political show this time took place following Taiwan's nine-in-one elections and the hunger strike staged by former "vice president" Lu Hsiu-lien. With a bewildering political landscape across the island and the chaotic situation within the Kuomintang party, Chen's release from jail helps the DPP to gain further ground.

This political show of the DPP has several indications. First, given the results of the nine-in-one polls, they no longer need to worry about the 2016 general elections and Chen's corruption scandals tarnishing the reputation of the DPP. They have stopped persuading Chen from pleading for forgiveness. Former DPP chairman Hsieh Chang-ting claimed that his party has moved out of Chen's shadow.

They also intend to check all their political assets and make full preparation for the 2016 general elections, for which Chen's identity will play a special role. He had ruled the DPP for eight years and made process on "Taiwan independence." The "One Country on Each Side" slogan and the "referendum" on Taiwan's entry into the UN are not only products of his own career but also the governing philosophies of the DPP. Therefore, his release on medical furlough has provided a way for the DPP to integrate different factions within the party and warm up for the general elections.

Actually, the DPP are quenching a thirst with poison by coercing civic consciousness to promote "Taiwan independence." Given the fact that the sunflower student movement in March and April 2014 wielded an immense influence upon the result of the nine-in-one elections, the immaturity of the island's democratic politics is still unfolding.

While the DPP hype up the "threat" of the mainland's growing economy, the protest against the Cross-Straits Service Trade Agreement and the call for civic consciousness have become major social and political issues of Taiwan. Radical students broke into the "Legislative Yuan," occupied the assembly hall and staged a sit-in, which, though at variance with democracy and the rule of law, won support from 70 percent of the public.

Chen's release will also impact cross-Straits relations from two perspectives. The uncertainty and complexity of Taiwan's party politics will further increase. The 2016 general elections will pose a test to the development of cross-Straits ties. Checking "Taiwan independence" is the bottom line of the mainland's Taiwan policy. The contradictions between the mainland's principle of "one country, two systems" and the DPP's obstinate pro-independence agenda will further flare up. 

The DPP's provocative strategy is in fact a miscalculation. They expect to hold power in 2016 amid escalated tensions in the western Pacific region. Nonetheless, looking into the future, the construction of a new type of major power relations between China and the US will have practical implications, and the strategic impact caused by Japan's decline will become a burden on Washington. The mainland is prepared to flex its muscles over the establishment of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.

Therefore, the release of Chen will have limited influence upon the cross-Straits relations. The civic consciousness of Taiwan people will gradually return to normalcy and the DPP's deliberate provocations will finally come to a dead end.

The author is a research fellow with the Institute for Taiwan, Hong Kong & Macao Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn