UK Parliament debates in the House of Commons, London. Photo: CFP

 
Who will be the next inhabitant of No. 10 Downing Street? That's the question on the lips of everyone in UK politics.

With smaller parties like the UKIP, the Scottish National party and the Greens on the rise, the two main parties' voting base has been squeezed. Analysts say the result of the General Election on May 7 is the most difficult to predict in generations.

Such political uncertainties could endanger UK's fragile economy, as a latest Financial Times survey of City bankers revealed on January 19.

The two main parties' campaigns are already underway, with both Conservatives and the Labour parties clearly shifted into campaign mode with four months left to go. In his New Year's message, David Cameron fired the opening shot, urging the people of the UK "to stick to the plan." 

While the Conservatives focus on their economic record, Labour is promising to address the cost of living and reduce inequality. Ed Miliband, leader of the Labour Party, expressed his frustration about "the biggest cost of living crisis in a generation" in his New Year's message, telling voters three priorities: putting working people first, dealing with the deficit and protecting the NHS.

EU membership



David Cameron has said the economy, jobs, taxes, education, housing and retirement are the top issues in his party's pitch for the coming election.

Although not included in the top six priorities, immigration is a question that David Cameron cannot avoid. It will also be part of Cameron's renegotiation of Britain's membership of the European Union, if he wins a second term as a prime minister.

In an interview on BBC One's Andrew Marr Show earlier this month, David Cameron said that he would be "delighted" to call an earlier EU referendum than the original deadline if his party wins the general election. Two years ago, he made his first public EU referendum proposal, setting the date for the end of 2017.

"The Conservative Party faces an electoral threat from the radical right United Kingdom Independence Party (who have taken a similar, though tougher line on the EU) who are threatening to win votes from disenchanted former Conservative voters," Sean Kippin, managing editor of Democratic Audit, LSE Public Policy Group, told the Global Times.

Founded in 1993, the UKIP, as its name implies, has consistently called for the UK to quit the EU. That message has helped the party gain huge support in European elections. In October, Douglas Carswell, the former Tory MP who defected from the party in August, won a by-election in Clacton-on-Sea to become UKIP's first elected MP in Parliament. UKIP seized their second House of Commons seat in a Rotherham by-election in November.

David Cameron also wants to ensure his own position within his party by emphasizing his pledge to hold an EU referendum; his MPs are keen to see the UK either leave or distance itself from the EU, often been to the detriment of party unity, said Kippin.

Cameron is eager to put the opposition Labour Party - who is strongly in favor of continued UK membership in the EU and see a referendum as putting this at risk - in a difficult political position.

"The general election has the potential to change the UK-EU relationship. However, it depends on the outcome," Kippin said.

David Cameron said he is "convinced" he can "fix the problems" in the UK's relationship with Europe when German chancellor Angela Merkel visited London on January 7.

But it is unlikely that other EU leaders will agree to some Cameron's proposed changes, including freedom of movement within the EU and some of stringent benefits requirements.

Another hung government?



Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has called for broadcasters to air a live TV debate before the General Election, even if the Prime Minister refuses to participate. Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband and UKIP leader Nigel Farage wrote to the prime minister last week, saying it would be "unacceptable" for him not to appear. David Cameron ruled out getting involved under the current format, which includes Nigel Farage but not Green Party leader Natalie Bennett. The pre-general election debate was firstly introduced in 2010. Recent polls show a huge public appetite for its continuation.

Major parties worry that positive exposure for minority parties could undermine their voter base. These anxieties are not groundless, as UK politics have seen a shift away from a two party system in recent years. The two big parties together are struggling to get 65 percent of the total vote now, while 60 years ago they got 98 percent.

Despite the unpredictability of the upcoming election, Sean Kippin believes it is likely that the 2015 general election will see another "hung parliament," with the Conservatives losing seats and Labour winning them. Whether the shift will put Labour in power remains to be seen.

Tony Travers, director of a research center at the London School of Economics and Professor in the LSE's Government Department, examined the parties' prospects by analyzing historical data from local elections.

"The 2015 general election will be determined by the impact of the vote shares of a series of 'minor' parties on the two big ones," Travers said, adding that it is likely the Conservative plus Labour vote share in May will be similar to or below 2010 levels. 

The latest YouGov poll on January 20 shows a tight race, with Conservatives at 32 percent of the vote, Labour at 30 percent, Liberal-Democratic 8 percent, UKIP 15 percent, and the Green Party at 10 percent.

Kippin believed that it is possible to envisage any one of three or four scenarios: a majority Labour government, a minority Labour government (a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition, a Labour-SNP coalition), a second term of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, or a more informal pact featuring smaller parties such as UKIP (who despite high opinion poll ratings will find it difficult to translate this popularity into seats thanks to the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system), the Greens, Plaid Cymru, and the Democratic Unionist Party.